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Multi-step-ahead wind speed forecasting based on optimal feature selection and a modified bat algorithm with the cognition strategy

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  • Niu, Tong
  • Wang, Jianzhou
  • Zhang, Kequan
  • Du, Pei

Abstract

With the arrival of big data, data mining analysis and high-performance forecasting of wind speed is increasingly attracting close attention. Despite the fact that massive investigations concerning wind speed forecasting in theory and practice have been conducted by multiple researchers, studies concerning multi-step-ahead forecasting are still lacking, impeding the further development in the field. In this study, a novel hybrid approach is proposed for multi-step-ahead wind speed forecasting utilizing optimal feature selection and an artificial neural network optimized by a modified bat algorithm with cognition strategy. The proposed hybrid model can largely remedy the deficiencies of neural networks for multi-step-ahead forecasting, which is validated for different forecasting horizons, and is shown to work effectively. Finally, experiments based on three verification units from the city of Penglai in China are conducted effectively, illustrating that the proposed model not only has advantages when compared with benchmark models, but also has great potential for application to wind power system.

Suggested Citation

  • Niu, Tong & Wang, Jianzhou & Zhang, Kequan & Du, Pei, 2018. "Multi-step-ahead wind speed forecasting based on optimal feature selection and a modified bat algorithm with the cognition strategy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 213-229.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:118:y:2018:i:c:p:213-229
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2017.10.075
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    8. Hong, Ying-Yi & Satriani, Thursy Rienda Aulia, 2020. "Day-ahead spatiotemporal wind speed forecasting using robust design-based deep learning neural network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    9. Xu, Li & Ou, Yanxia & Cai, Jingjing & Wang, Jin & Fu, Yang & Bian, Xiaoyan, 2023. "Offshore wind speed assessment with statistical and attention-based neural network methods based on STL decomposition," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
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    11. Liu, Guanjun & Wang, Yun & Qin, Hui & Shen, Keyan & Liu, Shuai & Shen, Qin & Qu, Yuhua & Zhou, Jianzhong, 2023. "Probabilistic spatiotemporal forecasting of wind speed based on multi-network deep ensembles method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 231-247.
    12. Li, Chen & Zhu, Zhijie & Yang, Hufang & Li, Ranran, 2019. "An innovative hybrid system for wind speed forecasting based on fuzzy preprocessing scheme and multi-objective optimization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 1219-1237.
    13. Martins, Guilherme Santos & Giesbrecht, Mateus, 2021. "Clearness index forecasting: A comparative study between a stochastic realization method and a machine learning algorithm," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 787-805.
    14. Costa, Marcelo Azevedo & Ruiz-Cárdenas, Ramiro & Mineti, Leandro Brioschi & Prates, Marcos Oliveira, 2021. "Dynamic time scan forecasting for multi-step wind speed prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 584-595.
    15. Wenlong Fu & Kai Wang & Jianzhong Zhou & Yanhe Xu & Jiawen Tan & Tie Chen, 2019. "A Hybrid Approach for Multi-Step Wind Speed Forecasting Based on Multi-Scale Dominant Ingredient Chaotic Analysis, KELM and Synchronous Optimization Strategy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-24, March.
    16. Shenghua Xiong & Chunfeng Wang & Zhenming Fang & Dan Ma, 2019. "Multi-Step-Ahead Carbon Price Forecasting Based on Variational Mode Decomposition and Fast Multi-Output Relevance Vector Regression Optimized by the Multi-Objective Whale Optimization Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-21, January.
    17. Aasim, & Singh, S.N. & Mohapatra, Abheejeet, 2019. "Repeated wavelet transform based ARIMA model for very short-term wind speed forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 758-768.
    18. Xiaoyu Shi & Xuewen Lei & Qiang Huang & Shengzhi Huang & Kun Ren & Yuanyuan Hu, 2018. "Hourly Day-Ahead Wind Power Prediction Using the Hybrid Model of Variational Model Decomposition and Long Short-Term Memory," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-20, November.
    19. Jianguo Zhou & Xuechao Yu & Baoling Jin, 2018. "Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: A New Hybrid Model Combined Extreme-Point Symmetric Mode Decomposition, Extreme Learning Machine and Particle Swarm Optimization," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-18, September.
    20. Li, Yanfei & Shi, Huipeng & Han, Fengze & Duan, Zhu & Liu, Hui, 2019. "Smart wind speed forecasting approach using various boosting algorithms, big multi-step forecasting strategy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 540-553.
    21. Liu, Ling & Wang, Jujie, 2021. "Super multi-step wind speed forecasting system with training set extension and horizontal–vertical integration neural network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).

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