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Non-linear regression model for wind turbine power curve

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  • Marčiukaitis, Mantas
  • Žutautaitė, Inga
  • Martišauskas, Linas
  • Jokšas, Benas
  • Gecevičius, Giedrius
  • Sfetsos, Athanasios

Abstract

In this article, a study of wind turbine power curve modelling is presented with application to a particular wind turbine of Seirijai wind farm in Lithuania. A non-linear regression model for wind turbine power curve approximation was proposed, which stands out with several advantages, such as fitting physical properties of wind turbine (i.e., power curve does not exceed the highest value of generated power as it is maximum physically possible), lower number of parameters to be estimated, dependency on only one factor. MAPE was used as a measure of approximation method accuracy. Mode approach was introduced as an alternative to typical techniques for modelling power curves of wind turbines with the aim to avoid elimination of the outliers from initial data and the impact of varying concentration of observations in the full range of wind speed. Performed cross-validation analysis demonstrated that the developed power curve model is appropriate for the prediction of wind power and is not directly dependent on the initial data set.

Suggested Citation

  • Marčiukaitis, Mantas & Žutautaitė, Inga & Martišauskas, Linas & Jokšas, Benas & Gecevičius, Giedrius & Sfetsos, Athanasios, 2017. "Non-linear regression model for wind turbine power curve," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 732-741.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:113:y:2017:i:c:p:732-741
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2017.06.039
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    Cited by:

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    3. Rogers, T.J. & Gardner, P. & Dervilis, N. & Worden, K. & Maguire, A.E. & Papatheou, E. & Cross, E.J., 2020. "Probabilistic modelling of wind turbine power curves with application of heteroscedastic Gaussian Process regression," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 1124-1136.
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    5. Marino Marrocu & Luca Massidda, 2017. "A Simple and Effective Approach for the Prediction of Turbine Power Production From Wind Speed Forecast," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-14, November.
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    7. Duca, Victor E.L.A. & Fonseca, Thais C.O. & Cyrino Oliveira, Fernando Luiz, 2022. "Joint modelling wind speed and power via Bayesian Dynamical models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    8. Mehrjoo, Mehrdad & Jafari Jozani, Mohammad & Pawlak, Miroslaw, 2020. "Wind turbine power curve modeling for reliable power prediction using monotonic regression," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(P1), pages 214-222.
    9. Liu, Lei & Liu, Jicheng & Ye, Yu & Liu, Hui & Chen, Kun & Li, Dong & Dong, Xue & Sun, Mingzhai, 2023. "Ultra-short-term wind power forecasting based on deep Bayesian model with uncertainty," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 598-607.
    10. Muhammad Yaqoob Javed & Iqbal Ahmed Khurshid & Aamer Bilal Asghar & Syed Tahir Hussain Rizvi & Kamal Shahid & Krzysztof Ejsmont, 2022. "An Efficient Estimation of Wind Turbine Output Power Using Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-22, July.
    11. Karamichailidou, Despina & Kaloutsa, Vasiliki & Alexandridis, Alex, 2021. "Wind turbine power curve modeling using radial basis function neural networks and tabu search," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 2137-2152.
    12. Bilal, Boudy & Adjallah, Kondo Hloindo & Sava, Alexandre & Yetilmezsoy, Kaan & Kıyan, Emel, 2022. "Wind power conversion system model identification using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems: A case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PB).
    13. Zou, Runmin & Yang, Jiaxin & Wang, Yun & Liu, Fang & Essaaidi, Mohamed & Srinivasan, Dipti, 2021. "Wind turbine power curve modeling using an asymmetric error characteristic-based loss function and a hybrid intelligent optimizer," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    14. Díaz, Santiago & Carta, José A. & Castañeda, Alberto, 2020. "Influence of the variation of meteorological and operational parameters on estimation of the power output of a wind farm with active power control," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 812-826.
    15. Wang, Yun & Duan, Xiaocong & Zou, Runmin & Zhang, Fan & Li, Yifen & Hu, Qinghua, 2023. "A novel data-driven deep learning approach for wind turbine power curve modeling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    16. Yan, Jie & Zhang, Hao & Liu, Yongqian & Han, Shuang & Li, Li, 2019. "Uncertainty estimation for wind energy conversion by probabilistic wind turbine power curve modelling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 1356-1370.
    17. Han, Shuang & Qiao, Yanhui & Yan, Ping & Yan, Jie & Liu, Yongqian & Li, Li, 2020. "Wind turbine power curve modeling based on interval extreme probability density for the integration of renewable energies and electric vehicles," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 190-203.
    18. Luca Massidda & Marino Marrocu, 2017. "Decoupling Weather Influence from User Habits for an Optimal Electric Load Forecast System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-16, December.
    19. Tugce Demirdelen & Pırıl Tekin & Inayet Ozge Aksu & Firat Ekinci, 2019. "The Prediction Model of Characteristics for Wind Turbines Based on Meteorological Properties Using Neural Network Swarm Intelligence," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-18, September.
    20. Liang, Guoyuan & Su, Yahao & Wu, Xinyu & Ma, Jiajun & Long, Huan & Song, Zhe, 2023. "Abnormal data cleaning for wind turbines by image segmentation based on active shape model and class uncertainty," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    21. Malz, E.C. & Verendel, V. & Gros, S., 2020. "Computing the power profiles for an Airborne Wind Energy system based on large-scale wind data," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 766-778.

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