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Further development of a Causal model for Air Transport Safety (CATS): Building the mathematical heart

Author

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  • Ale, B.J.M.
  • Bellamy, L.J.
  • van der Boom, R.
  • Cooper, J.
  • Cooke, R.M.
  • Goossens, L.H.J.
  • Hale, A.R.
  • Kurowicka, D.
  • Morales, O.
  • Roelen, A.L.C.
  • Spouge, J.

Abstract

The development of the Netherlands international airport Schiphol has been the subject of fierce political debate for several decades. One of the considerations has been the safety of the population living around the airport, the density of which has been and still is growing. In the debate about the acceptability of the risks associated with the air traffic above, The Netherlands extensive use has been made of statistical models relating the movement of airplanes to the risks on the ground. Although these models are adequate for the debate and for physical planning around the airport, the need has arisen to gain a more thorough understanding of the accident genesis in air traffic, with the ultimate aim of improving the safety situation in air traffic in general and around Schiphol in particular. To this aim, a research effort has started to develop causal models for air traffic risks in the expectation that these will ultimately give the insight needed. The concept was described in an earlier paper. In this paper, the backbone of the model and the way event sequence diagrams, fault-trees and Bayesian belief nets are linked to form a homogeneous mathematical model suitable as a tool to analyse causal chains and quantify risks is described.

Suggested Citation

  • Ale, B.J.M. & Bellamy, L.J. & van der Boom, R. & Cooper, J. & Cooke, R.M. & Goossens, L.H.J. & Hale, A.R. & Kurowicka, D. & Morales, O. & Roelen, A.L.C. & Spouge, J., 2009. "Further development of a Causal model for Air Transport Safety (CATS): Building the mathematical heart," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(9), pages 1433-1441.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:94:y:2009:i:9:p:1433-1441
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2009.02.024
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Morales, O. & Kurowicka, D. & Roelen, A., 2008. "Eliciting conditional and unconditional rank correlations from conditional probabilities," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(5), pages 699-710.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Roger M Cooke & Bruce Wielicki, 2018. "Probabilistic reasoning about measurements of equilibrium climate sensitivity: combining disparate lines of evidence," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(3), pages 541-554, December.
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    4. Luo, Pengcheng & Hu, Yang, 2013. "System risk evolution analysis and risk critical event identification based on event sequence diagram," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 36-44.
    5. Zhang, Xiaoge & Mahadevan, Sankaran, 2021. "Bayesian network modeling of accident investigation reports for aviation safety assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    6. Dorota Kurowicka, 2012. "Conditionalization of Copula-Based Models," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(3), pages 219-230, September.
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    8. Stroeve, Sybert H. & Som, Pradip & van Doorn, Bas A. & (Bert) Bakker, G.J., 2016. "Strengthening air traffic safety management by moving from outcome-based towards risk-based evaluation of runway incursions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 93-108.
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    10. L. Robin Keller & Kelly M. Kophazi, 2012. "From the Editors ---Copulas, Group Preferences, Multilevel Defenders, Sharing Rewards, and Communicating Analytics," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(3), pages 213-218, September.
    11. Pasman, H.J. & Knegtering, B. & Rogers, W.J., 2013. "A holistic approach to control process safety risks: Possible ways forward," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 21-29.
    12. Zhou, Jianfeng & Reniers, Genserik & Khakzad, Nima, 2016. "Application of event sequence diagram to evaluate emergency response actions during fire-induced domino effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 202-209.
    13. Bandeira, Michelle Carvalho Galvão Silva Pinto & Correia, Anderson Ribeiro & Martins, Marcelo Ramos, 2018. "General model analysis of aeronautical accidents involving human and organizational factors," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 137-146.
    14. Zhang, Yimin & Shortle, John & Sherry, Lance, 2015. "Methodology for collision risk assessment of an airspace flow corridor concept," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 444-455.
    15. Rogerson, Ellen C. & Lambert, James H., 2012. "Prioritizing risks via several expert perspectives with application to runway safety," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 22-34.
    16. Hossein Hassani & Xu Huang & Mansi Ghodsi, 2018. "Big Data and Causality," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 133-156, June.
    17. Rios Insua, D. & Alfaro, C. & Gomez, J. & Hernandez-Coronado, P. & Bernal, F., 2018. "A framework for risk management decisions in aviation safety at state level," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 74-82.

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    Keywords

    Risk; Causal model; Aviation;
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