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Conceptual basis for the definition and calculation of expected dose in performance assessments for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

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  • Helton, Jon C.
  • Sallaberry, Cedric J.

Abstract

A deep geologic repository for high-level radioactive waste is under development by the US Department of Energy (DOE) at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada. As mandated in the Energy Policy Act of 1992, the US Environmental Protection Agency has promulgated public health and safety standards (i.e., 40 CFR Part 197) for the YM repository, and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission has promulgated licensing standards (i.e., 10 CFR Parts 2, 19, 20, etc.) consistent with 40 CFR Part 197 that the DOE must establish are met in order for the YM repository to be licensed for operation. Important requirements in 40 CFR Part 197 and 10 CFR Parts 2, 19, 20, etc. relate to the determination of expected (i.e., mean) dose to a reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) and the incorporation of uncertainty into this determination. This paper is the first part of a two-part presentation and describes how general and typically nonquantitative statements in 40 CFR Part 197 and 10 CFR Parts 2, 19, 20, etc. can be given a formal mathematical structure that facilitates both the calculation of expected dose to the RMEI and the appropriate separation in this calculation of aleatory uncertainty (i.e., randomness in the properties of future occurrences such as igneous and seismic events) and epistemic uncertainty (i.e., lack of knowledge about quantities that are imprecisely known but assumed to have constant values in the calculation of expected dose to the RMEI). The second part of this presentation is contained in the following paper, “Computational Implementation of Sampling-Based Approaches to the Calculation of Expected Dose in Performance Assessments for the Proposed High-Level Radioactive Waste Repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada,†and both describes and illustrates sampling-based procedures for the estimation of expected dose and the determination of the uncertainty in estimates for expected dose.

Suggested Citation

  • Helton, Jon C. & Sallaberry, Cedric J., 2009. "Conceptual basis for the definition and calculation of expected dose in performance assessments for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 677-698.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:94:y:2009:i:3:p:677-698
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2008.06.011
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Garthwaite, Paul H. & Kadane, Joseph B. & O'Hagan, Anthony, 2005. "Statistical Methods for Eliciting Probability Distributions," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 680-701, June.
    2. Sitakanta Mohanty & Budhi Sagar, 2002. "Importance of Transparency and Traceability in Building a Safety Case for High‐Level Nuclear Waste Repositories," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(1), pages 7-15, February.
    3. D. Warner North, 1999. "A Perspective on Nuclear Waste," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(4), pages 751-758, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Swift, Peter N. & Hansen, Clifford W. & Helton, Jon C. & Howard, Robert L. & Kathryn Knowles, M. & MacKinnon, Robert J. & McNeish, Jerry A. & David Sevougian, S., 2014. "Summary discussion of the 2008 performance assessment for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 449-456.
    2. Cadini, F. & De Sanctis, J. & Girotti, T. & Zio, E. & Luce, A. & Taglioni, A., 2010. "Monte Carlo-based assessment of the safety performance of a radioactive waste repository," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(8), pages 859-865.
    3. Helton, J.C. & Hansen, C.W. & Sallaberry, C.J., 2014. "Expected dose for the nominal scenario class in the 2008 performance assessment for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 267-271.
    4. Helton, Jon C. & Johnson, Jay D. & Sallaberry, Cédric J., 2011. "Quantification of margins and uncertainties: Example analyses from reactor safety and radioactive waste disposal involving the separation of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(9), pages 1014-1033.
    5. Helton, J.C. & Hansen, C.W. & Sallaberry, C.J., 2014. "Expected dose and associated uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results for all scenario classes in the 2008 performance assessment for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca ," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 421-435.
    6. Cadini, F. & Gioletta, A. & Zio, E., 2015. "Improved metamodel-based importance sampling for the performance assessment of radioactive waste repositories," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 188-197.
    7. Helton, J.C. & Hansen, C.W. & Sallaberry, C.J., 2014. "Conceptual structure and computational organization of the 2008 performance assessment for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 223-248.
    8. Tosoni, E. & Salo, A. & Govaerts, J. & Zio, E., 2019. "Comprehensiveness of scenarios in the safety assessment of nuclear waste repositories," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 561-573.
    9. Sallaberry, C.J. & Hansen, C.W. & Helton, J.C., 2014. "Expected dose for the igneous scenario classes in the 2008 performance assessment for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 339-353.
    10. Helton, J.C. & Gross, M.G. & Hansen, C.W. & Sallaberry, C.J. & Sevougian, S.D., 2014. "Expected dose for the seismic scenario classes in the 2008 performance assessment for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 380-398.
    11. Edoardo Tosoni & Ahti Salo & Enrico Zio, 2018. "Scenario Analysis for the Safety Assessment of Nuclear Waste Repositories: A Critical Review," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(4), pages 755-776, April.
    12. Hansen, C.W. & Behie, G.A. & Brooks, K.M. & Chen, Y. & Helton, J.C. & Hommel, S.P. & Lee, K.P. & Lester, B. & Mattie, P.D. & Mehta, S. & Miller, S.P. & Sallaberry, C.J. & Sevougian, S.D. & Wasiolek, M, 2014. "Assessment of compliance with ground water protection standards in the 2008 performance assessment for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 442-448.
    13. Helton, J.C. & Hansen, C.W. & Sallaberry, C.J., 2014. "Expected dose for the early failure scenario classes in the 2008 performance assessment for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 297-309.
    14. Helton, Jon C. & Hansen, Clifford W. & Sallaberry, Cédric J., 2012. "Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in performance assessment for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 44-63.
    15. Rechard, Rob P. & Freeze, Geoff A. & Perry, Frank V., 2014. "Hazards and scenarios examined for the Yucca Mountain disposal system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 74-95.
    16. Pilch, Martin & Trucano, Timothy G. & Helton, Jon C., 2011. "Ideas underlying the Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(9), pages 965-975.
    17. Hansen, Clifford W. & Helton, Jon C. & Sallaberry, Cédric J., 2012. "Use of replicated Latin hypercube sampling to estimate sampling variance in uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 139-148.
    18. Blatman, Géraud & Sudret, Bruno, 2010. "Efficient computation of global sensitivity indices using sparse polynomial chaos expansions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(11), pages 1216-1229.
    19. Zio, E. & Pedroni, N., 2010. "An optimized Line Sampling method for the estimation of the failure probability of nuclear passive systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(12), pages 1300-1313.

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