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Use of replicated Latin hypercube sampling to estimate sampling variance in uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste

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  • Hansen, Clifford W.
  • Helton, Jon C.
  • Sallaberry, Cédric J.

Abstract

The 2008 performance assessment (PA) for the proposed repository for high-level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, used a Latin hypercube sample (LHS) of size 300 in the propagation of the epistemic uncertainty present in 392 analysis input variables. To assess the adequacy of this sample size, the 2008 YM PA was repeated with three independently generated (i.e., replicated) LHSs of size 300 from the indicated 392 input variables and their associated distributions. Comparison of the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results obtained with the three replicated LHSs showed that the three samples lead to similar results and that the use of any one of three samples would have produced the same assessment of the effects and implications of epistemic uncertainty. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results obtained with the three LHSs were compared by (i) simple visual inspection, (ii) use of the t-distribution to provide a formal representation of sample-to-sample variability in the determination of expected values over epistemic uncertainty and other distributional quantities, and (iii) use of the top down coefficient of concordance to determine agreement with respect to the importance of individual variables indicated in sensitivity analyses performed with the replicated samples. The presented analyses established that an LHS of size 300 was adequate for the propagation and analysis of the effects and implications of epistemic uncertainty in the 2008 YM PA.

Suggested Citation

  • Hansen, Clifford W. & Helton, Jon C. & Sallaberry, Cédric J., 2012. "Use of replicated Latin hypercube sampling to estimate sampling variance in uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 139-148.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:107:y:2012:i:c:p:139-148
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2011.12.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Helton, Jon C. & Sallaberry, Cedric J., 2009. "Conceptual basis for the definition and calculation of expected dose in performance assessments for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 677-698.
    2. Kennedy, Marc C. & Anderson, Clive W. & Conti, Stefano & O’Hagan, Anthony, 2006. "Case studies in Gaussian process modelling of computer codes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 91(10), pages 1301-1309.
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    5. Marc C. Kennedy & Anthony O'Hagan, 2001. "Bayesian calibration of computer models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 63(3), pages 425-464.
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