IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v206y2021ics0951832020307250.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The precautionary principle as multi-period games where players have different thresholds for acceptable uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Hausken, Kjell

Abstract

The precautionary principle (PP) is formalized assuming multiple players (branches of government, interest groups, etc.). Each player has a different threshold for acceptable uncertainty. A flow chart illustrates how a threat impacts uncertainty. Thereafter each player, starting with the most precautionary, assesses whether the uncertainty is below its threshold. Replying yes implies no command and execution of action, and vice versa when replying no. One game is played in each time period through the flow chart, followed by a feedback loop causing a new and possibly lower threat and uncertainty. The process continues as long as at least one player experiences uncertainty above its threshold. The flow chart is illustrated with a 2  ×  2 game displaying equilibria through three time periods where both players, one player, and no players are precautionary. Illustrations are made involving pollution, climate change, genetically modified food, new drugs, and nuclear proliferation. A nuclear power example with three players illustrates equilibria with varying degrees of being precautionary.

Suggested Citation

  • Hausken, Kjell, 2021. "The precautionary principle as multi-period games where players have different thresholds for acceptable uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:206:y:2021:i:c:s0951832020307250
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2020.107224
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832020307250
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2020.107224?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Terje Aven, 2011. "On Different Types of Uncertainties in the Context of the Precautionary Principle," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(10), pages 1515-1525, October.
    2. Richard C. Ready & Richard C. Bishop, 1991. "Endangered Species and the Safe Minimum Standard," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 73(2), pages 309-312.
    3. Jonathan Aldred, 2012. "Climate change uncertainty, irreversibility and the precautionary principle," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 36(5), pages 1051-1072.
    4. Aldred, Jonathan, 2013. "Justifying precautionary policies: Incommensurability and uncertainty," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 132-140.
    5. Athanassoglou, Stergios & Xepapadeas, Anastasios, 2012. "Pollution control with uncertain stock dynamics: When, and how, to be precautious," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 304-320.
    6. Per Sandin & Martin Peterson & Sven Ove Hansson & Christina Rudén & André Juthe, 2002. "Five charges against the precautionary principle," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(4), pages 287-299, October.
    7. Abrahamsen, Eirik Bjorheim & Abrahamsen, Håkon Bjorheim & Milazzo, Maria Francesca & Selvik, Jon Tømmerås, 2018. "Using the ALARP principle for safety management in the energy production sector of chemical industry," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 160-165.
    8. Grijalva, Therese & Berrens, Robert P. & Shaw, W. Douglass, 2011. "Species preservation versus development: An experimental investigation under uncertainty," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(5), pages 995-1005, March.
    9. Herbert A. Simon, 1955. "A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 69(1), pages 99-118.
    10. Kjell Hausken, 2018. "Formalizing the Precautionary Principle Accounting for Strategic Interaction, Natural Factors, and Technological Factors," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(10), pages 2055-2072, October.
    11. Palmini, Dennis, 1999. "Uncertainty, risk aversion, and the game theoretic foundations of the safe minimum standard: a reassessment," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 463-472, June.
    12. Ersdal, Gerhard & Aven, Terje, 2008. "Risk informed decision-making and its ethical basis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 197-205.
    13. Kjell Hausken, 2018. "A cost–benefit analysis of terrorist attacks," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 111-129, February.
    14. Richard C. Bishop, 1978. "Endangered Species and Uncertainty: The Economics of a Safe Minimum Standard," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 60(1), pages 10-18.
    15. Frank H. Koch & Denys Yemshanov & Daniel W. McKenney & William D. Smith, 2009. "Evaluating Critical Uncertainty Thresholds in a Spatial Model of Forest Pest Invasion Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(9), pages 1227-1241, September.
    16. Akos Rona-Tas & Antoine Cornuéjols & Sandrine Blanchemanche & Antonin Duroy & Christine Martin, 2019. "Enlisting Supervised Machine Learning in Mapping Scientific Uncertainty Expressed in Food Risk Analysis," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 48(3), pages 608-641, August.
    17. Crowards, Tom M., 1998. "Safe Minimum Standards: costs and opportunities," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 303-314, June.
    18. Aven, Terje, 2016. "Risk assessment and risk management: Review of recent advances on their foundation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 253(1), pages 1-13.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Chao & Yang, Ming & Reniers, Genserik, 2021. "A dynamic stochastic methodology for quantifying HAZMAT storage resilience," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    2. Iaiani, Matteo & Tugnoli, Alessandro & Macini, Paolo & Cozzani, Valerio, 2021. "Outage and asset damage triggered by malicious manipulation of the control system in process plants," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    3. Li, Qing & Li, Mingchu & Tian, Yuan & Gan, Jianyuan, 2023. "A risk-averse tri-level stochastic model for locating and recovering facilities against attacks in an uncertain environment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kjell Hausken, 2018. "Formalizing the Precautionary Principle Accounting for Strategic Interaction, Natural Factors, and Technological Factors," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(10), pages 2055-2072, October.
    2. Kjell Hausken, 2019. "Principal–Agent Theory, Game Theory, and the Precautionary Principle," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 16(2), pages 105-127, June.
    3. Michael Margolis & Eric Nævdal, 2008. "Safe Minimum Standards in Dynamic Resource Problems: Conditions for Living on the Edge of Risk," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 40(3), pages 401-423, July.
    4. Farmer, Michael C., 2001. "Getting the safe minimum standard to work in the real world: a case study in moral pragmatism," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 209-226, August.
    5. Irmi Seidl & Clem Tisdell, 2001. "Neglected Features of the Safe Minimum Standard: Socio-economic and Institutional Dimensions," Review of Social Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 59(4), pages 417-442.
    6. Baumgärtner, Stefan & Quaas, Martin F., 2009. "Ecological-economic viability as a criterion of strong sustainability under uncertainty," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(7), pages 2008-2020, May.
    7. Berrens, Robert P. & McKee, Michael & Farmer, Michael C., 1999. "Incorporating distributional considerations in the safe minimum standard approach: endangered species and local impacts," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 461-474, September.
    8. Aldred, Jonathan, 2013. "Justifying precautionary policies: Incommensurability and uncertainty," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 132-140.
    9. Grijalva, Therese & Berrens, Robert P. & Shaw, W. Douglass, 2011. "Species preservation versus development: An experimental investigation under uncertainty," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(5), pages 995-1005, March.
    10. Shaw, W. Douglass & Woodward, Richard T., 2010. "Water Management, Risk, and Uncertainty: Things We Wish We Knew in the 21st Century," Western Economics Forum, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 9(2), pages 1-15.
    11. Gürlük, Serkan & Ward, Frank A., 2009. "Integrated basin management: Water and food policy options for Turkey," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(10), pages 2666-2678, August.
    12. Solomon, Barry D. & Corey-Luse, Cristi M. & Halvorsen, Kathleen E., 2004. "The Florida manatee and eco-tourism: toward a safe minimum standard," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1-2), pages 101-115, September.
    13. Crowards, Tom M., 1998. "Safe Minimum Standards: costs and opportunities," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 303-314, June.
    14. Alan Randall, 2020. "On Intergenerational Commitment, Weak Sustainability, and Safety," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-18, July.
    15. Bishop, Richard C. & Woodward, Richard T., 1993. "Efficiency and Sustainability in Imperfect Market Systems," Staff Papers 200566, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    16. Palmini, Dennis, 1999. "Uncertainty, risk aversion, and the game theoretic foundations of the safe minimum standard: a reassessment," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 463-472, June.
    17. Rolfe, John, 1995. "Ulysses Revisited - A Closer Look At The Safe Minimum Standard Rule," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 39(1), pages 1-16, April.
    18. Swallow, Stephen K., 1996. "Economic Issues in Ecosystem Management: An Introduction and Overview," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 83-100, October.
    19. Bąk Sylwia, 2020. "The problem of uncertainty and risk as a subject of research of the Nobel Prize Laureates in Economic Sciences," Journal of Economics and Management, Sciendo, vol. 39(1), pages 21-40, March.
    20. Bandara, Ranjith & Tisdell, Clement A., 2003. "Willingness to pay for different degrees of Abundance of Elephants," Economics, Ecology and Environment Working Papers 48966, University of Queensland, School of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Precautionary principle; Formalization; Strategic interaction; Uncertainty; Risk; Game;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C7 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D89 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Other
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:206:y:2021:i:c:s0951832020307250. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.