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Schedule risk analysis for new-product development: The GERT method extended by a characteristic function

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  • Tao, Liangyan
  • Wu, Desheng
  • Liu, Sifeng
  • Lambert, James H.

Abstract

Schedule risk analysis plays a key role in new product development. A typical project-schedule model using the Critical Path Method (CPM) and Program, Evaluation, and Review Technique (PERT) falls short in many practical situations. Instead, a graphical evaluation and review technique (GERT) has been recommended for its ability to address probability branches and loops. This paper introduces a GERT model based on a characteristic function and designs its numerical solution. First, an inversion formula is applied to derive the probability distribution of the completion time of a product development. Second, to address the implications of a due date, a novel measure of schedule risk is introduced to give a view of both loss and probability. Third, an elasticity analysis is used to identify the network parameters that facilitate the control of schedule risk. A case study of new product development in a high-technology enterprise is presented to demonstrate the proposed methods. The approach will be useful in schedule risk analysis across several problem domains including engineering, environment, management, economic development, etc.

Suggested Citation

  • Tao, Liangyan & Wu, Desheng & Liu, Sifeng & Lambert, James H., 2017. "Schedule risk analysis for new-product development: The GERT method extended by a characteristic function," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 464-473.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:167:y:2017:i:c:p:464-473
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2017.06.010
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    6. Wenjie Dong & Sifeng Liu & Zhigeng Fang & Yingsai Cao & Ye Ding, 2019. "A model based on hidden graphic evaluation and review technique network to evaluate reliability and lifetime of multi-state systems," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 233(3), pages 369-378, June.

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