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The risk of an air accident as a result of a serious incident of the hybrid type

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  • Skorupski, Jacek

Abstract

Safety in air traffic is a multilayered concept and consists of many safety barriers. The practical side of increasing safety is mainly based on analysing the causes of accidents and incidents. This analysis leads to finding gaps in the safety structure and to developing corrective recommendations in order to eliminate them. In this paper we indicate that this practice is insufficient. Most incidents could transform into accidents with fatalities. The standard method of investigating incidents does not answer the question as to whether safety barrier is permanent or whether it was activated accidentally. This paper proposes a new method for analysing incidents aimed at finding their consequences rather than their causes. This makes it possible to find areas that need improvement. Stochastic, timed, coloured Petri nets were used for the analysis. There are three types of air traffic incidents, distinguished according to events that lead to a transformation of an incident into an accident: causal and temporal. The hybrid case, in which both types are important, has been discussed in detail. The method is useful in evaluating the current level of safety in air traffic. Applicability of this method has been shown on the example of the runway incursion problem.

Suggested Citation

  • Skorupski, Jacek, 2015. "The risk of an air accident as a result of a serious incident of the hybrid type," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 37-52.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:140:y:2015:i:c:p:37-52
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2015.03.031
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Horowitz, B.M. & Santos, J.R., 2009. "Runway safety at airports: A systematic approach for implementing ultra-safe options," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 357-362.
    2. Tamasi, Galileo & Demichela, Micaela, 2011. "Risk assessment techniques for civil aviation security," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(8), pages 892-899.
    3. Stroeve, Sybert H. & Blom, Henk A.P. & Bakker, G.J. (Bert), 2013. "Contrasting safety assessments of a runway incursion scenario: Event sequence analysis versus multi-agent dynamic risk modelling," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 133-149.
    4. Hanea, D.M. & Jagtman, H.M. & van Alphen, L.L.M.M. & Ale, B.J.M., 2010. "Quantitative and qualitative analysis of the expert and non-expert opinion in fire risk in buildings," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(7), pages 729-741.
    5. Rogerson, Ellen C. & Lambert, James H., 2012. "Prioritizing risks via several expert perspectives with application to runway safety," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 22-34.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Chikha, Paulina & Skorupski, Jacek, 2022. "The risk of an airport traffic accident in the context of the ground handling personnel performance," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).

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