IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v604y2022ics0378437122004629.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling the interplay between epidemics and regional socio-economics

Author

Listed:
  • Snellman, Jan E.
  • Barrio, Rafael A.
  • Kaski, Kimmo K.
  • Käpylä, Maarit J.

Abstract

In this study we present a dynamical agent-based model to investigate the interplay between the socio-economy of and SEIRS-type epidemic spreading over a geographical area, divided to smaller area districts and further to smallest area cells. The model treats the populations of cells and authorities of districts as agents, such that the former can reduce their economic activity and the latter can recommend economic activity reduction both with the overall goal to slow down the epidemic spreading. The agents make decisions with the aim of attaining as high socio-economic standings as possible relative to other agents of the same type by evaluating their standings based on the local and regional infection rates, compliance to the authorities’ regulations, regional drops in economic activity, and efforts to mitigate the spread of epidemic. We find that the willingness of population to comply with authorities’ recommendations has the most drastic effect on the epidemic spreading: periodic waves spread almost unimpeded in non-compliant populations, while in compliant ones the spread is minimal with chaotic spreading pattern and significantly lower infection rates. Health and economic concerns of agents turn out to have lesser roles, the former increasing their efforts and the latter decreasing them.

Suggested Citation

  • Snellman, Jan E. & Barrio, Rafael A. & Kaski, Kimmo K. & Käpylä, Maarit J., 2022. "Modelling the interplay between epidemics and regional socio-economics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 604(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:604:y:2022:i:c:s0378437122004629
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2022.127696
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437122004629
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2022.127696?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hiroyasu Inoue & Yasuyuki Todo, 2020. "The propagation of economic impacts through supply chains: The case of a mega-city lockdown to prevent the spread of COVID-19," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(9), pages 1-10, September.
    2. Snellman, Jan E. & Barrio, Rafael A. & Kaski, Kimmo K., 2021. "Social structure formation in a network of agents playing a hybrid of ultimatum and dictator games," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 561(C).
    3. Hiroyasu Inoue & Yohsuke Murase & Yasuyuki Todo, 2021. "Do economic effects of the anti-COVID-19 lockdowns in different regions interact through supply chains?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(7), pages 1-19, July.
    4. Silva, Petrônio C.L. & Batista, Paulo V.C. & Lima, Hélder S. & Alves, Marcos A. & Guimarães, Frederico G. & Silva, Rodrigo C.P., 2020. "COVID-ABS: An agent-based model of COVID-19 epidemic to simulate health and economic effects of social distancing interventions," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    5. Jan E. Snellman & Gerardo I~niguez & J'anos Kert'esz & R. A. Barrio & Kimmo K. Kaski, 2018. "Status maximization as a source of fairness in a networked dictator game," Papers 1806.05542, arXiv.org.
    6. Matthew Koehler & David M Slater & Garry Jacyna & James R Thompson, 2021. "Modeling COVID-19 for Lifting Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 24(2), pages 1-9.
    7. Barrio, Rafael A. & Kaski, Kimmo K. & Haraldsson, Guđmundur G. & Aspelund, Thor & Govezensky, Tzipe, 2021. "A model for social spreading of Covid-19: Cases of Mexico, Finland and Iceland," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 582(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mellacher, Patrick, 2020. "COVID-Town: An Integrated Economic-Epidemiological Agent-Based Model," MPRA Paper 103661, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Yasuyuki Todo & Keita Oikawa & Masahito Ambashi & Fukunari Kimura & Shujiro Urata, 2021. "Robustness and Resilience of Supply Chains During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Findings from a Questionnaire Survey on the Supply Chain Links of Firms in ASEAN and India," Working Papers DP-2021-40, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    3. Balezentis, Tomas & Zickiene, Agne & Volkov, Artiom & Streimikiene, Dalia & Morkunas, Mangirdas & Dabkiene, Vida & Ribasauskiene, Erika, 2023. "Measures for the viable agri-food supply chains: A multi-criteria approach," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 155(PA).
    4. Alejandro G. Graziano & Yuan Tian, 2023. "Trade disruptions along the global supply chain," Discussion Papers 2023-06, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    5. Fattahi, Mohammad & Keyvanshokooh, Esmaeil & Kannan, Devika & Govindan, Kannan, 2023. "Resource planning strategies for healthcare systems during a pandemic," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(1), pages 192-206.
    6. Moritz Kersting & Andreas Bossert & Leif Sörensen & Benjamin Wacker & Jan Chr. Schlüter, 2021. "Predicting effectiveness of countermeasures during the COVID-19 outbreak in South Africa using agent-based simulation," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 1-15, December.
    7. Wang, Richard & Ye, Zhongnan & Lu, Miaojia & Hsu, Shu-Chien, 2022. "Understanding post-pandemic work-from-home behaviours and community level energy reduction via agent-based modelling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    8. Souknilanh Keola & Kazunobu Hayakawa, 2021. "Do Lockdown Policies Reduce Economic and Social Activities? Evidence from NO2 Emissions," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 59(2), pages 178-205, June.
    9. Tommaso Ferraresi & Leonardo Ghezzi & Fabio Vanni & Alessandro Caiani & Mattia Guerini & Francesco Lamperti & Severin Reissl & Giorgio Fagiolo & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2021. "On the Economic and Health Impact of the COVID-19 Shock on Italian Regions: A Value Chain Approach," GREDEG Working Papers 2021-18, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    10. Keiichi Morimoto & Shiba Suzuki, 2022. "Ambiguity in a pandemic recession, asset prices, and lockdown policy," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 24(5), pages 1039-1070, October.
    11. Nano Prawoto & Eko Priyo Purnomo & Abitassha Az Zahra, 2020. "The Impacts of Covid-19 Pandemic on Socio-Economic Mobility in Indonesia," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(3), pages 57-71.
    12. Prol, Javier López & O, Sungmin, 2020. "Impact of COVID-19 Measures on Short-Term Electricity Consumption in the Most Affected EU Countries and USA States," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 23(10).
    13. INOUE Hiroyasu & MURASE Yohsuke & TODO Yasuyuki, 2022. "Lockdowns Require Geographic Coordination because of the Propagation of Economic Effects through Supply Chains," Discussion papers 22076, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    14. Antoine Mandel & Vipin Veetil, 2020. "The Economic Cost of COVID Lockdowns: An Out-of-Equilibrium Analysis," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 431-451, October.
    15. Nan Li & Muzi Chen & Difang Huang, 2022. "How Do Logistics Disruptions Affect Rural Households? Evidence from COVID-19 in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-17, December.
    16. Mohammadreza Akbari & John L. Hopkins, 2022. "Digital technologies as enablers of supply chain sustainability in an emerging economy," Operations Management Research, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 689-710, December.
    17. Weili Yin & Wenxue Ran, 2023. "Explaining Firm Performance During the COVID-19 With fsQCA: The Role of Supply Network Complexity, Inventory Turns, and Geographic Dispersion," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(2), pages 21582440231, June.
    18. Shen, Meng & Li, Xiang & Lu, Yujie & Cui, Qingbin & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2021. "Personality-based normative feedback intervention for energy conservation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    19. Kahn, Charles M. & Wagner, Wolf, 2021. "Liquidity provision during a pandemic," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    20. Zachariah Sinkala & Vajira Manathunga & Bichaka Fayissa, 2022. "An Epidemic Compartment Model for Economic Policy Directions for Managing Future Pandemic," Papers 2202.05374, arXiv.org.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:604:y:2022:i:c:s0378437122004629. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.