IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v535y2019ics0378437119313263.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On natural slow time rhythms in economic growth

Author

Listed:
  • Brannan, James

Abstract

This paper is a study of fluctuations in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) around locally defined balanced growth paths. In an uncertain environment, we extend the Solow model of economic growth to allow for capital dependent saving, and time delay between output and planned capital investment. Modeling saving rate as a sigmoid function of capital in effect inserts a positive feedback loop into the dynamics. As a consequence, time periods of positive and negative fluctuations about balanced growth paths are prolonged compared to corresponding fluctuations that would occur in the absence of the feedback loop. We first formulate and analyze the model in continuous time and then follow up with a discrete time approximation. Using data derived from the GDP, we estimate parameters by minimizing one-step-ahead prediction error while simultaneously matching second order statistics of the approximation to second order statistics of the data. In the model’s dynamic stationary state, business cycles occur naturally as excursions of bounded random walks from balanced growth paths where the random walks themselves consist of sums of correlated random variables. Linearization of the model about a balanced growth path yields a method for representing fluctuations in growth data as a superposition of three processes that evolve on different time scales—slow, intermediate, and fast. The resulting frequency based decomposition reveals a natural, slow time ebb and flow in output that can be used to predict future growth trends in the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Brannan, James, 2019. "On natural slow time rhythms in economic growth," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 535(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:535:y:2019:i:c:s0378437119313263
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2019.122304
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437119313263
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2019.122304?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    2. Paul Beaudry & Dana Galizia & Franck Portier, 2017. "Is the Macroeconomy Locally Unstable and Why Should We Care?," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(1), pages 479-530.
    3. T. W. Swan, 1956. "ECONOMIC GROWTH and CAPITAL ACCUMULATION," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(2), pages 334-361, November.
    4. Ali Hosseiny & Mohammad Bahrami & Antonio Palestrini & Mauro Gallegati, 2016. "Metastable Features of Economic Networks and Responses to Exogenous Shocks," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(10), pages 1-22, October.
    5. Daron Acemoglu & Vasco M. Carvalho & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz‐Salehi, 2012. "The Network Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(5), pages 1977-2016, September.
    6. Michal Kalecki, 1937. "A Theory of the Business Cycle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 4(2), pages 77-97.
    7. Lucas Bernard & Aleksandr V. Gevorkyan & Thomas I. Palley & Willi Semmler, 2014. "Time scales and mechanisms of economic cycles: a review of theories of long waves," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 2(1), pages 87-107, January.
    8. Lucas, Robert E., 1977. "Understanding business cycles," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 7-29, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777.
    2. Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2015. "The agent-based Solow growth model with endogenous business cycles," Economics Working Papers 2015-01, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    3. repec:bap:eebook:02 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Edward C. Prescott, 1986. "Theory ahead of business cycle measurement," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 10(Fall), pages 9-22.
    5. Asmaa Ahmed, 2005. "Random Walks in the Economic Dynamic Series," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 78-100.
    6. Hideyuki Kamiryo, 2014. "Earth Endogenous System: To Answer the Current Unsolved Economic Problems (Second Edition)," Earth Endogenous System: To Answer the Current Unsolved Economic Problems (Second Edition), Better Advances Press, Canada, edition 2, volume 2, number 01 edited by Dr. Yisheng Huang, May.
    7. repec:bap:ees2th:01 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Franco Bevilacqua & Adriaan van Zon, 2004. "Random walks and non-linear paths in macroeconomic time series: some evidence and implications," Chapters, in: John Foster & Werner Hölzl (ed.), Applied Evolutionary Economics and Complex Systems, chapter 3, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schnabel, Isabel & Truger, Achim & Wieland, Volker, 2019. "Den Strukturwandel meistern. Jahresgutachten 2019/20 [Dealing with Structural Change. Annual Report 2019/20]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201920.
    10. Lores, Francisco Xavier, 2001. "Growth and cyclical fluctuations in Spanish macroeconomic series," UC3M Working papers. Economics we014609, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    11. Hideyuki Kamiryo, 2014. "Earth Endogenous System: To Answer the Current Unsolved Economic Problems (Second Edition)," Earth Endogenous System: To Answer the Current Unsolved Economic Problems (Second Edition), Better Advances Press, Canada, edition 2, volume 2, number 02 edited by Yisheng Huang, May.
    12. Kawalec Paweł, 2020. "The dynamics of theories of economic growth: An impact of Unified Growth Theory," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 6(2), pages 19-44, June.
    13. van de Klundert, T.C.M.J. & Smulders, J.A., 1991. "Reconstructing growth theory : A survey," Other publications TiSEM 19355c51-17eb-4d5d-aa66-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    14. Filipa Correia & Philipp Erfruth & Julie Bryhn, 2018. "The 2030 Agenda: The roadmap to GlobALLizaton," Working Papers 156, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    15. George Halkos & Iacovos Psarianos, 2016. "Exploring the effect of including the environment in the neoclassical growth model," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 18(3), pages 339-358, July.
    16. Martina Vukašina & Ines Kersan-Škabiæ & Edvard Orliæ, 2022. "Impact of European structural and investment funds absorption on the regional development in the EU–12 (new member states)," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 17(4), pages 857-880, December.
    17. Liu, Tung & Li, Kui-Wai, 2006. "Disparity in factor contributions between coastal and inner provinces in post-reform China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 449-470.
    18. Asongu, Simplice & Amavilah, Voxi & Andrés, Antonio R., 2014. "Economic Implications of Business Dynamics for KE-Associated Economic Growth and Inclusive Development in African Countries," MPRA Paper 63793, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Robert M. Solow, 2000. "La teoria neoclassica della crescita e della distribuzione," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 53(210), pages 149-185.
    20. Tisdell, Clem, 2011. "Biodiversity conservation, loss of natural capital and interest rates," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(12), pages 2511-2515.
    21. Tommy Lundgren, 2009. "Environmental Protection and Impact on Adjacent Economies: Evidence from the Swedish Mountain Region," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 513-532, September.
    22. Lichner, Ivan & Lyócsa, Štefan & Výrostová, Eva, 2022. "Nominal and discretionary household income convergence: The effect of a crisis in a small open economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 18-31.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:535:y:2019:i:c:s0378437119313263. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.