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Time scales and mechanisms of economic cycles: a review of theories of long waves

Author

Listed:
  • Lucas Bernard

    (CUNY)

  • Aleksandr V. Gevorkyan

    (St. John's University, New York)

  • Thomas I. Palley

    (AFL-CIO)

  • Willi Semmler

    (NSSR)

Abstract

This paper explores long wave theory, including Kondratieff's theory of cycles in production and relative prices; Kuznets's theory of cycles arising from infrastructure investments; Schumpeter's theory of cycles due to waves of technological innovation; Goodwin's theory of cyclical growth based on employment and wage share dynamics; Keynes–Kaldor–Kalecki's demand and investment-oriented theories of cycles; and Minsky's financial instability hypothesis whereby capitalist economies show a genetic propensity to boom–bust cycles. This literature has been out of favor for many years but recent developments suggest a re-examination is warranted and timely.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucas Bernard & Aleksandr V. Gevorkyan & Thomas I. Palley & Willi Semmler, 2014. "Time scales and mechanisms of economic cycles: a review of theories of long waves," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 2(1), pages 87-107, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:elg:rokejn:v:2:y:2014:i:1:p87-107
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Marco Gallegati, 2019. "A system for dating long wave phases in economic development," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 803-822, July.
    2. Gregor Semieniuk & Emanuele Campiglio & Jean‐Francois Mercure & Ulrich Volz & Neil R. Edwards, 2021. "Low‐carbon transition risks for finance," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(1), January.
    3. Francisco Louçã, 2019. "As Time Went By - Long Waves in the Light of Evolving Evolutionary Economics," SPRU Working Paper Series 2019-05, SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex Business School.
    4. Daizadeh, Iraj, 2021. "Since 1976, the Dynamics of US FDA Medical Device Premarket Notifications are Trending Downwards and Premarket Approvals are Trending Upwards, Yet Together There is a Clear Single 20-Year Period: Does," OSF Preprints 896vw, Center for Open Science.
    5. Leila E Davis & Joao Paulo A de Souza & Gonzalo Hernandez, 2019. "An empirical analysis of Minsky regimes in the US economy," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 43(3), pages 541-583.
    6. Greg Hannsgen & Tai Young-Taft, 2015. "Inside Money in a Kaldor-Kalecki-Steindl Fiscal Policy Model: The Unit of Account, Inflation, Leverage, and Financial Fragility," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_839, Levy Economics Institute.
    7. Brannan, James, 2019. "On natural slow time rhythms in economic growth," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 535(C).
    8. Dmitriy Aleksandrovich Endovitskiy & Nikolay Petrovich Lyubushin & Nadezhda Evaldovna Babicheva & Tatyana Alekseevna Pozhidaeva, 2017. "The Quantitative Assessment of the Cyclical Development in Modern Conditions," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 13(4), pages 109-119.
    9. Charles M. A. Clark & Aleksandr V. Gevorkyan, 2020. "Artificial Intelligence and Human Flourishing," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 79(4), pages 1307-1344, September.
    10. Schot, Johan & Kanger, Laur, 2018. "Deep transitions: Emergence, acceleration, stabilization and directionality," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(6), pages 1045-1059.
    11. Johan Schot & Laur Kanger, 2016. "Deep Transitions: Emergence, Acceleration, Stabilization and Directionality," SPRU Working Paper Series 2016-15, SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex Business School.
    12. Marco Gallegati & Mauro Gallegati & James B. Ramsey & Willi Semmler, 2017. "Long waves in prices: new evidence from wavelet analysis," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 11(1), pages 127-151, January.
    13. Eduardo Rivera Vicencio, 2016. "Monetary Conformation of the Corporate Governmentality III Description of the Monetary System," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 4(2), pages 18-41.
    14. Patella, Valeria & Tancioni, Massimiliano, 2021. "Confidence Swings and Sovereign Risk Dynamics," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 195-206.
    15. Gallegati, Marco & Delli Gatti, Domenico, 2018. "Macrofinancial imbalances in historical perspective: A global crisis index," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 190-205.
    16. Maciej Holko, 2017. "Oszczędności pracowników, rozwój rynku kapitału i inwestycje zagraniczne - rządowy plan rozwoju z perspektywy postkeynesowskiej," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 5, pages 5-30.
    17. Julia M. Puaschunder, 2023. "Heterodox Science Leadership," RAIS Conference Proceedings 2022-2023 0281, Research Association for Interdisciplinary Studies.
    18. Aleksandr V. Gevorkyan & Ingrid Harvold Kvangraven, 2016. "Assessing Recent Determinants of Borrowing Costs in Sub-Saharan Africa," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(4), pages 721-738, November.
    19. Manuel Rubio-García & Santiago Castaño-Salas, 2020. "El excedente económico en economías periféricas: una perspectiva teórica desde los aportes de Baran, Prebisch y Furtado," Ensayos de Economía 19133, Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Medellín.
    20. Issa, Samar & Gevorkyan, Aleksandr V., 2022. "Optimal corporate leverage and speculative cycles: an empirical estimation," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 478-491.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    cycles; production cycles; infrastructure cycles; accelerator-multiplier mechanism; innovation cycles; financial crisis; booms and busts; Goodwin; Kalecki; Minsky; asset price-leveraging cycles; Kaldor; Kuznets; Kondratieff;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B16 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought through 1925 - - - Quantitative and Mathematical
    • B23 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Econometrics; Quantitative and Mathematical Studies
    • C65 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Miscellaneous Mathematical Tools
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • D90 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative

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