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Momentum and contrarian effects on the cryptocurrency market

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  • Kosc, Krzysztof
  • Sakowski, Paweł
  • Ślepaczuk, Robert

Abstract

We report the results of investigation of the momentum and contrarian effects on cryptocurrency markets. The investigated investment strategies involve 100 (amongst over 1200 present as of date Nov 2017) cryptocurrencies with the largest market cap and average 14-day daily volume exceeding a given threshold value. Investment portfolios are constructed using different assumptions regarding the portfolio reallocation period, width of the ranking window, the number of cryptocurrencies in the portfolio, and the percent transaction costs. The performance is benchmarked against: (1) equally weighted and (2) market-cap weighted investments in all of the ranked assets, as well as against the buy and hold strategies based on (3) S&P500 index, and (4) Bitcoin price. Our results show a clear and significant dominance of the short-term contrarian effect over both momentum effect and the benchmark portfolios. The information ratio coefficient for the contrarian strategies often exceeds two-digit values depending on the assumed reallocation period and the width of the ranking window. Additionally, we observe a significant diversification potential for all cryptocurrency portfolios with relation to the S&P500 index.

Suggested Citation

  • Kosc, Krzysztof & Sakowski, Paweł & Ślepaczuk, Robert, 2019. "Momentum and contrarian effects on the cryptocurrency market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 691-701.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:523:y:2019:i:c:p:691-701
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2019.02.057
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    Cited by:

    1. Ślepaczuk Robert & Zenkova Maryna, 2018. "Robustness of Support Vector Machines in Algorithmic Trading on Cryptocurrency Market," Central European Economic Journal, Sciendo, vol. 5(52), pages 186-205, January.
    2. Zaremba, Adam & Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin & Long, Huaigang & Mercik, Aleksander & Szczygielski, Jan J., 2021. "Up or down? Short-term reversal, momentum, and liquidity effects in cryptocurrency markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    3. Day, Min-Yuh & Ni, Yensen, 2023. "Do clean energy indices outperform using contrarian strategies based on contrarian trading rules?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 272(C).
    4. Bui, Quynh & Ślepaczuk, Robert, 2022. "Applying Hurst Exponent in pair trading strategies on Nasdaq 100 index," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 592(C).
    5. Kumar, Ashish & Iqbal, Najaf & Mitra, Subrata Kumar & Kristoufek, Ladislav & Bouri, Elie, 2022. "Connectedness among major cryptocurrencies in standard times and during the COVID-19 outbreak," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    6. Mehdi Zolfaghari & Bahram Sahabi, 2021. "The impact of oil price and exchange rate on momentum strategy profits in stock market: evidence from oil-rich developing countries," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 15(7), pages 1981-2023, October.
    7. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alex Plastun, 2020. "Momentum effects in the cryptocurrency market after one-day abnormal returns," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 34(3), pages 251-266, September.
    8. Petkova, Ralitsa, 2023. "Extrapolative beliefs about Bitcoin returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    9. Paweł Sakowski & Anna Turovtseva, 2020. "Verification of Investment Opportunities on the Cryptocurrency Market within the Markowitz Framework," Working Papers 2020-41, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    10. Ladislav Kristoufek, 2022. "On the role of stablecoins in cryptoasset pricing dynamics," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-26, December.
    11. Min-Yuh Day & Yensen Ni & Chinning Hsu & Paoyu Huang, 2022. "Do Investment Strategies Matter for Trading Global Clean Energy and Global Energy ETFs?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-15, May.
    12. Borgards, Oliver, 2021. "Dynamic time series momentum of cryptocurrencies," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cryptocurrencies; Bitcoin; Momentum and contrarian effect; Investment strategies; Efficient market hypothesis; Modern asset allocation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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