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Is there enough fertile soil to feed a planet of growing cities?

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  • D’Autilia, Roberto
  • D’Ambrosi, Ilaria

Abstract

We analyze a scaling law for the consumption of agricultural soil by cities. The nonlinear dependence of the size of the city on the number of inhabitants gives rise to an equation for population dynamics. We found the asymptotic limit of the solution for this equation, given by the carrying capacity in terms of number of inhabitants that can be fed. The carrying capacity as a function of the scaling law exponent is computed numerically, showing that the exponent must be very small to ensure a food sustainability. We suggest a bound for the value of this exponent and analyze the reliability of the scaling law for major cities.

Suggested Citation

  • D’Autilia, Roberto & D’Ambrosi, Ilaria, 2015. "Is there enough fertile soil to feed a planet of growing cities?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 419(C), pages 668-674.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:419:y:2015:i:c:p:668-674
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2014.10.048
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hernán D. Rozenfeld & Diego Rybski & Xavier Gabaix & Hernán A. Makse, 2011. "The Area and Population of Cities: New Insights from a Different Perspective on Cities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2205-2225, August.
    2. Headey, Derek & Fan, Shenggen, 2010. "Reflections on the global food crisis: How did it happen? How has it hurt? And how can we prevent the next one?," Research reports 165, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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