IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v413y2014icp609-625.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A model of political voting behaviours across different countries

Author

Listed:
  • Rowden, Jessica
  • Lloyd, David J.B.
  • Gilbert, Nigel

Abstract

This paper analyses, models mathematically, and compares national voting behaviours across seven democratic countries that have a long term election history, focusing on re-election rates, leaders’ reputation with voters and the importance of friends’ and family influence. Based on the data, we build a Markov model to test and explore national voting behaviour, showing voters are only influenced by the most recent past election. The seven countries can be divided into those in which there is a high probability that leaders will be re-elected and those in which incumbents have relatively less success.

Suggested Citation

  • Rowden, Jessica & Lloyd, David J.B. & Gilbert, Nigel, 2014. "A model of political voting behaviours across different countries," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 413(C), pages 609-625.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:413:y:2014:i:c:p:609-625
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2014.07.022
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437114005913
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2014.07.022?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kotler-Berkowitz, Laurence A., 2001. "Religion and Voting Behaviour in Great Britain: A Reassessment," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(3), pages 523-554, July.
    2. Galam, Serge & Zucker, Jean-Daniel, 2000. "From individual choice to group decision-making," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 287(3), pages 644-659.
    3. Seok‐ju Cho, 2009. "Retrospective Voting and Political Representation," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(2), pages 276-291, April.
    4. Christian Borghesi & Jean-Claude Raynal & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2012. "Election Turnout Statistics in Many Countries: Similarities, Differences, and a Diffusive Field Model for Decision-Making," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(5), pages 1-12, May.
    5. Mr. Matthew T Jones, 2005. "Estimating Markov Transition Matrices Using Proportions Data: An Application to Credit Risk," IMF Working Papers 2005/219, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Levy, Gilat, 2004. "A model of political parties," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 250-277, April.
    7. Galam, Serge, 1999. "Application of statistical physics to politics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 274(1), pages 132-139.
    8. Riker, William H., 1982. "The Two-party System and Duverger's Law: An Essay on the History of Political Science," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 76(4), pages 753-766, December.
    9. Davis, Otto A. & Hinich, Melvin J. & Ordeshook, Peter C., 1970. "An Expository Development of a Mathematical Model of the Electoral Process," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 64(2), pages 426-448, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:thr:techub:10014:y:2020:i:1:p:578-592 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Silviu-Petru GRECU, 2019. "Affects, Perception And European Citizenship. Regards In Political Psychology," EURINT, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 6, pages 185-206.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ronald Peeters & Rene Saran & Ayşe Müge Yüksel, 2016. "Strategic party formation on a circle and Duverger’s Law," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 47(3), pages 729-759, October.
    2. D Austen-Smith, 1983. "The Spatial Theory of Electoral Competition: Instability, Institutions, and Information," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 1(4), pages 439-460, December.
    3. Alastair Smith & Bruce Bueno de Mesquita & Tom LaGatta, 2017. "Group incentives and rational voting1," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 29(2), pages 299-326, April.
    4. Muscatelli, Vito A. & Natale, Piergiovanna & Tirelli, Patrizio, 2012. "A simple and flexible alternative to Stability and Growth Pact deficit ceilings. Is it at hand?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 14-26.
    5. Garance Genicot, 2022. "Tolerance and Compromise in Social Networks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(1), pages 94-120.
    6. Daniela Giannetti & Itai Sened, 2004. "Party Competition and Coalition Formation," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 16(4), pages 483-515, October.
    7. Lu, Xi & Mo, Hongming & Deng, Yong, 2015. "An evidential opinion dynamics model based on heterogeneous social influential power," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 98-107.
    8. Piolatto, Amedeo, 2011. "Plurality versus proportional electoral rule: Which is most representative of voters?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 311-327, June.
    9. Mattozzi, Andrea & Merlo, Antonio, 2008. "Political careers or career politicians?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(3-4), pages 597-608, April.
    10. Leonardo Felli & Antonio Merlo, 2006. "Endogenous Lobbying," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(1), pages 180-215, March.
    11. Jean Forand & Vikram Maheshri, 2015. "A dynamic Duverger’s law," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 165(3), pages 285-306, December.
    12. Erik Lindqvist & Robert Östling, 2013. "Identity and redistribution," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 155(3), pages 469-491, June.
    13. Francesco De Sinopoli & Leo Ferraris & Giovanna Iannantuoni, 2013. "Electing a parliament," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 40(3), pages 715-737, March.
    14. Pasanisi, Alberto & Fu, Shuai & Bousquet, Nicolas, 2012. "Estimating discrete Markov models from various incomplete data schemes," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(9), pages 2609-2625.
    15. Laurent Bouton & Micael Castanheira, 2012. "One Person, Many Votes: Divided Majority and Information Aggregation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(1), pages 43-87, January.
    16. Antonio Merlo, 2005. "Whither Political Economy? Theories, Facts and Issues," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-033, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 01 Dec 2005.
    17. Gary Cox, 1984. "An expected-utility model of electoral competition," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 337-349, August.
    18. Kenneth Koford, 1982. "Centralized vote-trading," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 245-268, January.
    19. Fernández, Raquel & Levy, Gilat, 2008. "Diversity and redistribution," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(5-6), pages 925-943, June.
    20. César Martinelli & John Duggan, 2014. "The Political Economy of Dynamic Elections: A Survey and Some New Results," Working Papers 1403, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:413:y:2014:i:c:p:609-625. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.