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Using purchase restrictions to cool housing markets: A within-market analysis

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  • Somerville, Tsur
  • Wang, Long
  • Yang, Yang

Abstract

In response to worsening housing affordability resulting from rapid housing price appreciation, some governments have introduced taxes or restrictions to reduce demand for local residential real estate by non-residents. We study the effectiveness of these efforts using the restrictions imposed by local Chinese governments in 2010–11 on the number of residential properties an individual could purchase. We use sales by developers of newly constructed units and exploit within city variation in the imposition of these restrictions to identify their effect on prices and transaction volumes. In addition to these direct effects on demand, we also identify the effects of these policies on supply using data from local government auctions of land to developers. Our results suggest that in the short run, restrictions on non-owner-occupant purchases significantly reduce activity levels by approximately 40%, compared to areas without restrictions. These effects diminish with time. However, there are no relative changes post-policy introduction in housing price between restricted and unrestricted areas. The results operate via end-user demand and not through the land market and the subsequent supply response by developers, as there is no relative change in either the number of land auctions or prices paid for land between districts with and districts without purchase restrictions following their introduction.

Suggested Citation

  • Somerville, Tsur & Wang, Long & Yang, Yang, 2020. "Using purchase restrictions to cool housing markets: A within-market analysis," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:juecon:v:115:y:2020:i:c:s009411901930066x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2019.103189
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    Cited by:

    1. Christian A. L. Hilber & Olivier Schoni, 2022. "Housing policy and affordable housing," CEP Occasional Papers 56, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    2. Diao, Mi & Fan, Yi & Sing, Tien Foo, 2021. "Rational pricing responses of developers to supply shocks: Evidence from Singapore," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 802-815.
    3. Hilber, Christian A.L. & Schöni, Olivier, 2020. "On the economic impacts of constraining second home investments," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    4. Lu, Zhentong & Zhang, Sisi & Hong, Jian, 2021. "Examining the impact of home purchase restrictions on China's housing market," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    5. Zhao, Renjie & Zhang, Jiakai, 2022. "Rent-tax substitution and its impact on firms: Evidence from housing purchase limits policy in China," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    6. Huang, Naqun & Yang, Zhenlin, 2021. "Spatial dynamic models with short panels: Evaluating the impact of purchase restrictions on housing prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    7. Jiaxin Wang, 2022. "Did China’s “National Sustainable Development Plan of Resource-Based Cities” Promote Economic Growth?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-17, July.
    8. Yu, Qing & Hui, Eddie Chi-Man & Shen, Jianfu, 2023. "Do local governments capitalise on the spillover effect in the housing market? Quasi-experimental evidence from house purchase restrictions in China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    9. Hanming Fang & Long Wang & Yang Yang, 2022. "Housing Wealth and Online Consumer Behavior: Evidence from Xiong'an New Area in China," NBER Working Papers 30465, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Sun, Weizeng & Zhang, Sisi & Lin, Chengtao & Zheng, Siqi, 2021. "How do home purchase restrictions affect elite Chinese graduate students’ job search behavior?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    11. Yongzhi Sun & Qiong Ma & Li Gan, 2024. "The Impact of Curbing Housing Speculation on Household Entrepreneurship in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-29, February.
    12. Tat-kei Lai & Travis Ng, 2022. "Does Restricting Outsiders Always Lower Price and Benefit Insiders?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 64(1), pages 153-178, January.
    13. Zheng, Xian & Chen, Xingtao & Yuan, Ziqing, 2021. "Exploring the spatial spillover effect of home purchase restrictions on residential land prices based on the difference-in-differences approach: Evidence from 195 Chinese cities," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    14. Simon C Büchler & Dongxiao Niu & Anne K Thompson & Siqi Zheng, 2024. "The impact of human capital and housing supply on urban growth," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 61(2), pages 214-230, February.
    15. Chen, Yunping & Chen, Huanhuan & Li, Guorong & Jiao, Dongdan & Xu, Xiangyun, 2021. "Time-varying effect of macro-prudential policies on household credit growth: Evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 241-254.
    16. Sonia Gilbukh & Andrew Haughwout & Rebecca J. Landau & Joseph Tracy, 2023. "The price‐to‐rent ratio: A macroprudential application," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(2), pages 503-532, March.
    17. Taiyi Zang & Hongmei Gu, 2023. "State-Space Modeling of Housing Sentiment for Regressing Changes of Real Estate Prices Following Short-Term Control Policy in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-19, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    House market cooling; Government restrictions; Chinese housing market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R28 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Government Policy
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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