How rational are investment decisions in the copper industry?
AbstractThis paper examines ex-post 51 investment decisions made in regard to copper mines coming on stream from 1957 through 1999. It discusses two critical variables: investment timing and mine capacity choice. Using a 15% discount rate, results suggest that fewer than half of decisions were made at the right time - i.e., low price periods - confirming countercyclical investment as the optimal policy. In terms of capacity choice, the distortion is even higher, as 36 projects should have entered at least 40% larger or smaller. Realized investment decisions for timing and capacity choice would have caused a 49.1% loss over the NPV potentially achievable under optimal resolutions. Although the difference could be specifically attributed to copper price uncertainty, this paper discusses how investment evaluation methodologies could be contributing to firms not being fully rational (in the neoclassical sense) when investing.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Resources Policy.
Volume (Year): 35 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30467
Capacity choice Investment timing Rationality Uncertainty;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robert S. Pindyck, 1986.
"Irreversible Investment, Capacity Choice, and the Value of the Firm,"
NBER Working Papers
1980, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pindyck, Robert S, 1988. "Irreversible Investment, Capacity Choice, and the Value of the Firm," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 969-85, December.
- Pindyck, Robert S., 1986. "Irreversible investment, capacity choice, and the value of the firm," Working papers 1802-86., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Lawrence H. Summers, 1988.
"Investment Incentives and the Discounting of Depreciation Allowances,"
NBER Working Papers
1941, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lawrence H. Summers, 1987. "Investment Incentives and the Discounting of Depreciation Allowances," NBER Chapters, in: The Effects of Taxation on Capital Accumulation, pages 295-304 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pindyck, Robert S., 1990.
"Irreversibility, uncertainty, and investment,"
3137-90., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1985. "Evaluating Natural Resource Investments," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(2), pages 135-57, April.
- Dimitrakopoulos, Roussos G. & Abdel Sabour, Sabry A., 2007. "Evaluating mine plans under uncertainty: Can the real options make a difference?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 116-125, September.
- Saman Majd & Robert S. Pindyck, 1987.
"Time to Build, Option Value, and Investment Decisions,"
NBER Working Papers
1654, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Majd, Saman & Pindyck, Robert S., 1987. "Time to build, option value, and investment decisions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 7-27, March.
- Moyen, Nathalie & Slade, Margaret & Uppal, Raman, 1996.
"Valuing risk and flexibility : A comparison of methods,"
Elsevier, vol. 22(1-2), pages 63-74.
- Moyen, N. & Slade, M. & Uppal, R., 1996. "Valuing Risk and Flexibility: A Comparison of Methods," G.R.E.Q.A.M. 96b08, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
- Roberts, Mark C., 2009. "Duration and characteristics of metal price cycles," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 87-102, September.
- Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1992. "Waiting to Invest: Investment and Uncertainty," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(1), pages 1-29, January.
- McDonald, Robert & Siegel, Daniel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-27, November.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.