Financial liberalization, exchange rates and stock prices: Exogenous shocks in four Latin America countries
AbstractThis paper provides an analysis of the long-run relationships and short-run dynamics between stock prices and exchange rates as well as the channels through which exogenous shocks influence these markets. We use monthly data for the period January 1980 to February 2009 for four Latin America, namely, Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico. We conduct our analysis by means of cointegration analysis and multivariate Granger causality tests. The main finding of our analysis suggests that stock and foreign exchange markets in these economies are positively related and that the U.S. stock market acts as a channel for these links. Moreover, it is shown that these links are independent of foreign exchange restrictions. Finally, stability tests proposed by Hansen and Johansen (1993) are applied and it is shown that the dimension of the cointegration space is sample independent while the estimated coefficients exhibit instability in recursive estimations. Instability in these long-run relationships is evident during the Mexican currency crisis of 1994-1995, the Asian crisis of 1997 and the 2007-2009 credit and financial crisis.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Policy Modeling.
Volume (Year): 33 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735
Latin America stock markets Foreign exchange market Capital market integration Financial crises;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Johansen, Soren, 1992.
"Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 383-97, August.
- Johansen, S., 1991. "Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend," Papers 76a, Helsinki - Department of Economics.
- Camarero, Mariam & Flores, Renato Jr. & Tamarit, Cecilio R., 2006.
"Monetary union and productivity differences in Mercosur countries,"
Journal of Policy Modeling,
Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 53-66, January.
- Camarero, Mariam & Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão & Tamarit, Cecilio R., 2004. "Monetary union and productivity differences in mercosur countries," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 542, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
- Mariam Camarero & Renato G. Flores, Jr. & Cecilio R. Tamarit, . "Monetary Union and productivity differences in Mercosur countries," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 03-04, FEDEA.
- Mariam Camarero & Renato G. Flôres, Jr. & Cecilio R. Tamarit, 2003. "Monetary Union and productivity differences in Mercosur countries," Working Papers 03-04, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
- Corbo, Vittorio, 2001. "Is it time for a common currency for the Americas?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 241-248, April.
- Giorgio De Santis & Selahattin Imrohoroglu, 1994.
"Stock returns and volatility in emerging financial markets,"
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics
93, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- De Santis, Giorgio & imrohoroglu, Selahattin, 1997. "Stock returns and volatility in emerging financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 561-579, August.
- James Heckman & Hidehiko Ichimura & Jeffrey Smith & Petra Todd, 1998.
"Characterizing Selection Bias Using Experimental Data,"
NBER Working Papers
6699, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James Heckman & Hidehiko Ichimura & Jeffrey Smith & Petra Todd, 1998. "Characterizing Selection Bias Using Experimental Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1017-1098, September.
- Alvarez-Plata, Patricia & Schrooten, Mechthild, 2004.
"Misleading indicators? The Argentinean currency crisis,"
Journal of Policy Modeling,
Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 587-603, July.
- Patricia Alvarez-Plata & Mechthild Schrooten, 2003. "Mis-Leading Indicators?: The Argentinean Currency Crisis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 327, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Pan, Ming-Shiun & Fok, Robert Chi-Wing & Liu, Y. Angela, 2007. "Dynamic linkages between exchange rates and stock prices: Evidence from East Asian markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 503-520.
- Chow, Edward H & Lee, Wayne Y & Solt, Michael E, 1997. "The Exchange-Rate Risk Exposure of Asset Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70(1), pages 105-23, January.
- Peter Blair Henry, 2000. "Stock Market Liberalization, Economic Reform, and Emerging Market Equity Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 529-564, 04.
- Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Sand-Zantman, Alain, 2009. "Does a Monetary Union protect against external shocks?: An assessment of Latin American integration," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 102-118.
- Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 2000.
"Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 565-613, 04.
- Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1997. "Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 79, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1997. "Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets," NBER Working Papers 6312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lumsdaine, Robin L., 2002.
"Dating the integration of world equity markets,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 203-247, August.
- Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Christian Lundblad, 2004.
"Growth Volatility and Financial Liberalization,"
NBER Working Papers
10560, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- AfDB AfDB, . "AfDB Group Annual Report 2007," Annual Report, African Development Bank, number 63 edited by Koua Louis Kouakou, 8.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- Grilli, Enzo, 2005. "Political economy and economic development in Latin America in the second half of the 20th century," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 1-31, February.
- Phylaktis, Kate & Ravazzolo, Fabiola, 2005. "Stock prices and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1031-1053, November.
- Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley, 1980. "Exchange Rates and the Current Account," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 960-71, December.
- Walid, Chkili & Chaker, Aloui & Masood, Omar & Fry, John, 2011. "Stock market volatility and exchange rates in emerging countries: A Markov-state switching approach," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 272-292, September.
- Bekhet, Hussain Ali & Matar, Ali, 2013. "Co-integration and causality analysis between stock market prices and their determinates in Jordan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 508-514.
- Walid Chkili & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2014.
"Exchange rate movements and stock market returns in a regime-switching environment: Evidence for BRICS countries,"
2014-388, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
- Chkili, Walid & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2014. "Exchange rate movements and stock market returns in a regime-switching environment: Evidence for BRICS countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 46-56.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.