Judgement or models: The importance of task differences
AbstractOver twenty years research on cognitive biases and limitations has built a strong case for managers not to use their judgement if a suitable formula or model is available. Much of this work was built on research demonstrating that in an environment where the judgemental cues are well established, pre-specified and not auto-correlated and where there is little contextual information, that a model based on expert judgement (a model-of-man) is more accurate than the expert himself. However, much practical decision making takes place in a setting where cues are not well established, where auto-correlation is present, and where there is general contextual information. This study investigated decisions made in such a setting, namely time series forecasting. Forecasts were estimated judgementally for 111 real life time series. These estimates were then used to construct a model-of-man and the forecasts from this model compared in accuracy with the original judgemental forecasts. This study found the model-of-man not to be superior to man when assessed in terms of forecast accuracy thus demonstrating a commonly occurring task setting in which the dominant research result in not true.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Omega.
Volume (Year): 24 (1996)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/375/description#description
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- E. H. Bowman, 1963. "Consistency and Optimality in Managerial Decision Making," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 9(2), pages 310-321, January.
- Dawes, Robyn & Fildes, Robert & Lawrence, Michael & Ord, Keith, 1994. "The past and the future of forecasting research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 151-159, June.
- Lawrence, Michael J. & Edmundson, Robert H. & O'Connor, Marcus J., 1985. "An examination of the accuracy of judgmental extrapolation of time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 25-35.
- Robert C. Blattberg & Stephen J. Hoch, 1990. "Database Models and Managerial Intuition: 50% Model + 50% Manager," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(8), pages 887-899, August.
- Robert Carbone & Spyros Makridakis, 1986. "Forecasting When Pattern Changes Occur Beyond the Historical Data," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(3), pages 257-271, March.
- Fildes, Robert A & Fitzgerald, M Desmond, 1983. "The Use of Information in Balance of Payments Forecasting," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 50(199), pages 249-58, August.
- Jorgensen, Magne, 2007. "Forecasting of software development work effort: Evidence on expert judgement and formal models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 449-462.
- Fildes, Robert & Goodwin, Paul & Lawrence, Michael & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, 2009. "Effective forecasting and judgmental adjustments: an empirical evaluation and strategies for improvement in supply-chain planning," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 3-23.
- Goodwin, Paul, 2002. "Integrating management judgment and statistical methods to improve short-term forecasts," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 127-135, April.
- Goodwin, Paul, 2000. "Improving the voluntary integration of statistical forecasts and judgment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 85-99.
- Franses, Philip Hans & Legerstee, Rianne, 2009. "Properties of expert adjustments on model-based SKU-level forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 35-47.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.