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The incentive to trade under ambiguity aversion

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  • Broll, Udo
  • Wong, Kit Pong

Abstract

This paper examines the behavior of an exporting firm that sells in both the home country and a foreign country. The firm makes its optimal production and export decisions when facing ambiguous exchange rate risk. Ambiguity is modeled by a second-order probability distribution that captures the firm's uncertainty about which of the subjective beliefs govern the exchange rate risk. Ambiguity preferences are modeled by the (second-order) expectation of a concave transformation of the (first-order) expected utility of profit conditional on each plausible subjective distribution of the exchange rate risk. Within this framework, we derive necessary and sufficient conditions under which the ambiguity-averse firm optimally sells more in the home country and exports less to the foreign country in response either to the introduction of ambiguity or to greater ambiguity aversion when ambiguity prevails. We further show that ambiguity and ambiguity aversion have adverse effect on the firm's incentive to export to the foreign country.

Suggested Citation

  • Broll, Udo & Wong, Kit Pong, 2015. "The incentive to trade under ambiguity aversion," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 190-196.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:joecas:v:12:y:2015:i:2:p:190-196
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2015.09.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Broll, Udo & Welzel, Peter & Wong, Kit Pong, 2016. "The banking firm under ambiguity aversion," CEPIE Working Papers 01/16, Technische Universität Dresden, Center of Public and International Economics (CEPIE).
    2. Broll, Udo & Mukherjee, Soumyatanu, 2017. "International trade and firms' attitude towards risk," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 69-73.
    3. Broll, Udo & Welzel, Peter & Wong, Kit Pong, 2020. "Regret aversion and asymmetric price distribution," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ambiguity; Ambiguity aversion; Exports; Production;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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