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Economic effects of demographic dividend in Brazilian regions

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  • Baerlocher, Diogo
  • Parente, Stephen L.
  • Rios-Neto, Eduardo

Abstract

Exploiting heterogeneity across Brazilian micro-regions over the 1970–2000 period, this paper examines whether the demographic dividend extends beyond a pure accounting effect. Using a Sys-GMM approach, it finds evidence that changes in age structure have only pure accounting effects after controlling for human capital. Therefore, in the case of Brazilian micro-regions, there is a second demographic dividend, which is associated with education. This second dividend is the far more important of the two dividends in terms of economic growth. In a counterfactual exercise, we show that the accounting effect is responsible for less that 10% of the income gap between the poorest and richest regions in Brazil.

Suggested Citation

  • Baerlocher, Diogo & Parente, Stephen L. & Rios-Neto, Eduardo, 2019. "Economic effects of demographic dividend in Brazilian regions," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 14(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:joecag:v:14:y:2019:i:c:s2212828x18301075
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2019.100198
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    Cited by:

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    2. Olaniyan, Olanrewaju & Olasehinde, Noah & Odufuwa, Oyeteju & Awodumi, Olabanji, 2021. "The nature and extent of demographic dividend in West Africa: National transfer account approach," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    3. Malmberg Anders & Malmberg Bo & Maskell Peter, 2023. "Population age structure – An underlying driver of national, regional and urban economic development," ZFW – Advances in Economic Geography, De Gruyter, vol. 67(4), pages 217-233, December.
    4. Lamar Crombach & Jeroen Smits, 2022. "The Demographic Window of Opportunity and Economic Growth at Sub-National Level in 91 Developing Countries," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 161(1), pages 171-189, May.
    5. Baerlocher, Diogo & Parente, Stephen L. & Rios-Neto, Eduardo, 2021. "Female Labor Force Participation and economic growth: Accounting for the gender bonus," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demographic dividend; Education dividend; Convergence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • I25 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Economic Development
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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