Excessive confidence in visually-based estimates
AbstractPeople exhibit excessive confidence in visually-based estimates, which in turn biases decision making. Three experiments support this assertion. Experiment 1 shows a strong impact of presentation format on estimation of proportions. Experiment 2 shows that people rely on these erroneous estimates to make incentive-compatible decisions even when objective information can be easily obtained. Experiment 3 demonstrates that the biased decisions disappear when confidence in visually-based estimates is called into question by the perceived complexity of the stimulus.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes.
Volume (Year): 116 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/obhdp
Overconfidence; Risk perception; Risk taking; Visual perception; Probability estimates; Gambling; Global processing; Numerosity; Likelihood judgment;
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