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Cryptocurrencies and Cagan’s model of hyperinflation

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  • Jermann, Urban J.

Abstract

The drivers of the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum are studied within a framework based on Cagan’s model of hyperinflation. In the model, the prices of the cryptocurrencies are driven by stochastic adoption and velocity shocks as well as endogenous expectations of future prices. The model is estimated with data for prices, transaction volumes, and money supplies. A majority of price fluctuations in both currencies can be attributed to shocks in adoption, velocity shocks are much less important. The money demand sensitivity to expected price changes is estimated to be larger for Bitcoin than for Ethereum, and both have higher sensitivity than fiat currencies during episodes of hyperinflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Jermann, Urban J., 2021. "Cryptocurrencies and Cagan’s model of hyperinflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:69:y:2021:i:c:s0164070421000446
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2021.103340
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bitcoin; Ethereum; Money demand; Exchange rates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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