IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jimfin/v79y2017icp203-217.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The intrinsic value of gold: An exchange rate-free price index

Author

Listed:
  • Harris, Richard D.F.
  • Shen, Jian

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a gold price index that enables market participants to separate the change in the ‘intrinsic’ value of gold from changes in global exchange rates. The index is a geometrically weighted average of the price of gold denominated in different currencies, with weights that are proportional to the market power of each country in the global gold market. Market power is defined as the impact that a change in a country’s exchange rate has on the price of gold expressed in other currencies. We use principal components analysis to reduce the set of global exchange rates to four currency ‘blocs’ representing the U.S. dollar, the euro, the commodity currencies and the Asian currencies, respectively. We estimate the weight of each currency bloc in the index in an error correction framework using a broad set of variables to control for the unobserved intrinsic value. We show that the resulting index is less volatile than the USD price of gold and, in contrast with the USD price of gold, has a strong negative relationship with global equities and a strong positive relationship with the VIX index, both of which underline the role of gold as a safe haven asset.

Suggested Citation

  • Harris, Richard D.F. & Shen, Jian, 2017. "The intrinsic value of gold: An exchange rate-free price index," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 203-217.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:79:y:2017:i:c:p:203-217
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2017.09.007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560617301857
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2017.09.007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sjaastad, Larry A. & Scacciavillani, Fabio, 1996. "The price of gold and the exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 879-897, December.
    2. Fatum, Rasmus & Yamamoto, Yohei, 2016. "Intra-safe haven currency behavior during the global financial crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 49-64.
    3. Clements, Kenneth W. & Fry, Renée, 2008. "Commodity currencies and currency commodities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 55-73, June.
    4. Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2010. "Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 217-229, May.
    5. James G. MacKinnon, 2010. "Critical Values For Cointegration Tests," Working Paper 1227, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    6. Pukthuanthong, Kuntara & Roll, Richard, 2011. "Gold and the Dollar (and the Euro, Pound, and Yen)," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 2070-2083, August.
    7. Robert J. Barro & Sanjay Misra, 2016. "Gold Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(594), pages 1293-1317, August.
    8. Malliaris, A.G. & Malliaris, Mary, 2015. "What drives gold returns? A decision tree analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 45-53.
    9. Capie, Forrest & Mills, Terence C. & Wood, Geoffrey, 2005. "Gold as a hedge against the dollar," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 343-352, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Salisu, Afees A. & Adekunle, Wasiu & Alimi, Wasiu A. & Emmanuel, Zachariah, 2019. "Predicting exchange rate with commodity prices: New evidence from Westerlund and Narayan (2015) estimator with structural breaks and asymmetries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 33-56.
    2. Cui, Moyang & Wong, Wing-Keung & Wisetsri, Worakamol & Mabrouk, Fatma & Muda, Iskandar & Li, Zeyun & Hassan, Marria, 2023. "Do oil, gold and metallic price volatilities prove gold as a safe haven during COVID-19 pandemic? Novel evidence from COVID-19 data," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    3. Tanin, Tauhidul Islam & Sarker, Ashutosh & Brooks, Robert & Do, Hung Xuan, 2022. "Does oil impact gold during COVID-19 and three other recent crises?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    4. Huang, Xiaoyong & Jia, Fei & Xu, Xiangyun & Yu shi,, 2019. "The threshold effect of market sentiment and inflation expectations on gold price," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 77-83.
    5. Tanin, Tauhidul Islam & Sarker, Ashutosh & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2021. "Do volatility indices diminish gold's appeal as a safe haven to investors before and during the COVID-19 pandemic?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 214-235.
    6. Tanin, Tauhidul Islam & Sarker, Ashutosh & Brooks, Robert, 2021. "Do currency exchange rates impact gold prices? New evidence from the ongoing COVID-19 period," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    7. Aktham Maghyereh & Hussein Abdoh, 2022. "Can news-based economic sentiment predict bubbles in precious metal markets?," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-29, December.
    8. Rubaszek, Michał & Karolak, Zuzanna & Kwas, Marek, 2020. "Mean-reversion, non-linearities and the dynamics of industrial metal prices. A forecasting perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    9. He, Qing & Guo, Yongxiu & Yu, Jishuang, 2020. "Nonlinear dynamics of gold and the dollar," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    10. Weizhang Liang & Suizhi Luo & Guoyan Zhao, 2018. "Evaluation of Cleaner Production for Gold Mines Employing a Hybrid Multi-Criteria Decision Making Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-20, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kuan-Min Wang & Thanh-Binh Nguyen Thi & Yuan-Ming Lee, 2021. "Is gold a safe haven for the dynamic risk of foreign exchange?," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-17, December.
    2. Pierdzioch, Christian & Risse, Marian & Rohloff, Sebastian, 2016. "Are precious metals a hedge against exchange-rate movements? An empirical exploration using bayesian additive regression trees," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 27-38.
    3. Huang, Xiaoyong & Jia, Fei & Xu, Xiangyun & Yu shi,, 2019. "The threshold effect of market sentiment and inflation expectations on gold price," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 77-83.
    4. Reboredo, Juan C. & Rivera-Castro, Miguel A., 2014. "Can gold hedge and preserve value when the US dollar depreciates?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 168-173.
    5. He, Qing & Guo, Yongxiu & Yu, Jishuang, 2020. "Nonlinear dynamics of gold and the dollar," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    6. Białkowski, Jędrzej & Bohl, Martin T. & Stephan, Patrick M. & Wisniewski, Tomasz P., 2015. "The gold price in times of crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 329-339.
    7. Zhao, Yanping & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Su, Chi-Wei & Nian, Rui, 2015. "Gold bubbles: When are they most likely to occur?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34, pages 17-23.
    8. Reboredo, Juan C., 2013. "Is gold a safe haven or a hedge for the US dollar? Implications for risk management," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2665-2676.
    9. Chiang, Thomas C., 2022. "The effects of economic uncertainty, geopolitical risk and pandemic upheaval on gold prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    10. Cheng, Wan-Hsiu & Chen, Chun-Da & Lai, Hsiao-Pin, 2020. "Revisiting the roles of gold: Does gold ETF matter?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    11. O'Connor, Fergal A. & Lucey, Brian M. & Batten, Jonathan A. & Baur, Dirk G., 2015. "The financial economics of gold — A survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 186-205.
    12. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert & Pilbeam, Keith, 2015. "Causality and volatility patterns between gold prices and exchange rates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 292-300.
    13. Qureshi, Saba & Rehman, Ijaz Ur & Qureshi, Fiza, 2018. "Does gold act as a safe haven against exchange rate fluctuations? The case of Pakistan rupee," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 685-708.
    14. Nguyen, Quynh Nga & Bedoui, Rihab & Majdoub, Najemeddine & Guesmi, Khaled & Chevallier, Julien, 2020. "Hedging and safe-haven characteristics of Gold against currencies: An investigation based on multivariate dynamic copula theory," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    15. Ntim, Collins G. & English, John & Nwachukwu, Jacinta & Wang, Yan, 2015. "On the efficiency of the global gold markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 218-236.
    16. Aktham Maghyereh & Hussein Abdoh, 2022. "Can news-based economic sentiment predict bubbles in precious metal markets?," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-29, December.
    17. Dichtl, Hubert, 2020. "Forecasting excess returns of the gold market: Can we learn from stock market predictions?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 19(C).
    18. Reboredo, Juan C. & Rivera-Castro, Miguel A., 2014. "Gold and exchange rates: Downside risk and hedging at different investment horizons," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 267-279.
    19. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Jae H. Kim, 2014. "Precious metals shine? A market efficiency perspective," Working Papers hal-01010516, HAL.
    20. Lin, Fu-Lai & Chen, Yu-Fen & Yang, Sheng-Yung, 2016. "Does the value of US dollar matter with the price of oil and gold? A dynamic analysis from time–frequency space," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 59-71.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Gold price index; Commodities; Exchange rates; Cointegration; Error correction mechanism;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:79:y:2017:i:c:p:203-217. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.