IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jimfin/v107y2020ics0261560620301765.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Procyclical leverage in Europe and its role in asset pricing

Author

Listed:
  • Baltzer, Markus
  • Koehl, Alexandra
  • Reitz, Stefan

Abstract

Since the global financial crisis a growing literature stresses that financial intermediaries balance sheet management may reinforce financial market shocks with severe consequences for the real sector of the economy. In this paper we provide empirical evidence for this view from European and German asset markets. GMM estimations as well as dynamic asset pricing models reveal that broker–dealer leverage is procyclical with a positive price of risk and also forecasts future asset returns. Overall, our results provide evidence in favor of the importance of broker-dealers as marginal investors in asset markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Baltzer, Markus & Koehl, Alexandra & Reitz, Stefan, 2020. "Procyclical leverage in Europe and its role in asset pricing," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:107:y:2020:i:c:s0261560620301765
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2020.102220
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560620301765
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2020.102220?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carvallo Valencia, Oscar & Ortiz Bolaños, Alberto, 2018. "Bank capital buffers around the world: Cyclical patterns and the effect of market power," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 119-131.
    2. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    3. Adrian, Tobias & Crump, Richard K. & Moench, Emanuel, 2015. "Regression-based estimation of dynamic asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 211-244.
    4. Tobias Adrian & Nina Boyarchenko, 2012. "Intermediary leverage cycles and financial stability," Staff Reports 567, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. A. Baglioni & E. Beccalli & A. Boitani & A. Monticini, 2013. "Is the leverage of European banks procyclical?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 1251-1266, December.
    6. Erkko Etula, 2013. "Broker-Dealer Risk Appetite and Commodity Returns," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(3), pages 486-521, June.
    7. Acharya, Viral V. & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2005. "Asset pricing with liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 375-410, August.
    8. Zhiguo He & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2013. "Intermediary Asset Pricing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(2), pages 732-770, April.
    9. Lewellen, Jonathan & Nagel, Stefan & Shanken, Jay, 2010. "A skeptical appraisal of asset pricing tests," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 175-194, May.
    10. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2012. "Size, value, and momentum in international stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 457-472.
    11. Tobias Adrian & Erkko Etula & Tyler Muir, 2014. "Financial Intermediaries and the Cross-Section of Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2557-2596, December.
    12. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
    13. Valentin Haddad & David Sraer, 2020. "The Banking View of Bond Risk Premia," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(5), pages 2465-2502, October.
    14. Tobias Adrian & Emanuel Moench & Hyun Song Shin, 2010. "Financial intermediation, asset prices, and macroeconomic dynamics," Staff Reports 422, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    15. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    16. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Martin Oehmke, 2014. "Predatory Short Selling," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(6), pages 2153-2195.
    17. Craig Burnside, 2011. "The Cross Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3456-3476, December.
    18. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    19. Cochrane, John H., 2005. "Financial Markets and the Real Economy," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(1), pages 1-101, July.
    20. Kleibergen, Frank & Zhan, Zhaoguo, 2015. "Unexplained factors and their effects on second pass R-squared’s," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 189(1), pages 101-116.
    21. Adrian, Tobias & Song Shin, Hyun, 2010. "Financial Intermediaries and Monetary Economics," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 12, pages 601-650, Elsevier.
    22. Rey, Hélène, 2015. "Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence," CEPR Discussion Papers 10591, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    23. Tobias Adrian & Emanuel Moench & Hyun Song Shin, 2013. "Dynamic Leverage Asset Pricing," Staff Reports 625, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    24. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Presidential Address: Discount Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1047-1108, August.
    25. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-858, May.
    26. Shanken, Jay, 1992. "On the Estimation of Beta-Pricing Models," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 1-33.
    27. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    28. He, Zhiguo & Kelly, Bryan & Manela, Asaf, 2017. "Intermediary asset pricing: New evidence from many asset classes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 1-35.
    29. Cappelletti, Giuseppe & Ponte Marques, Aurea & Varraso, Paolo & Budrys, Žymantas & Peeters, Jonas, 2019. "Impact of higher capital buffers on banks’ lending and risk-taking: evidence from the euro area experiments," Working Paper Series 2292, European Central Bank.
    30. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stefan Reitz & Dennis Umlandt, 2019. "Foreign Exchange Dealer Asset Pricing," Working Paper Series 2019-08, University of Trier, Research Group Quantitative Finance and Risk Analysis.
    2. Jamali, Ibrahim & Yamani, Ehab & Smallwood, Aaron D., 2023. "An investment-based explanation of currency excess returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    3. Reitz, Stefan & Umlandt, Dennis, 2021. "Currency returns and FX dealer balance sheets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    4. Eriksen, Jonas N., 2019. "Cross-sectional return dispersion and currency momentum," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 91-108.
    5. Keunbae Ahn, 2021. "Predictable Fluctuations in the Cross-Section and Time-Series of Asset Prices," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2021.
    6. Piccotti, Louis R., 2017. "Financial contagion risk and the stochastic discount factor," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 230-248.
    7. Tobias Adrian & Erkko Etula, 2010. "Funding liquidity risk and the cross-section of stock returns," Staff Reports 464, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    8. Della Corte, Pasquale & Ramadorai, Tarun & Sarno, Lucio, 2016. "Volatility risk premia and exchange rate predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 21-40.
    9. Aleksejs Krecetovs & Pasquale Della Corte, 2016. "Macro uncertainty and currency premia," 2016 Meeting Papers 624, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Andrew Detzel, 2017. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Investment Opportunities, And Asset Prices," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 315-348, September.
    11. Gino Cenedese & Richard Payne & Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente, 2016. "What Do Stock Markets Tell Us about Exchange Rates?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(3), pages 1045-1080.
    12. Amit Goyal, 2012. "Empirical cross-sectional asset pricing: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 3-38, March.
    13. Tyler Muir & Erkko Etula & Tobias Adrian, 2011. "Broker-Dealer Leverage and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," 2011 Meeting Papers 1448, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2013. "Understanding Asset Prices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    15. Feng, Xu & Lu, Lei & Xiao, Yajun, 2020. "Shadow banks, leverage risks, and asset prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    16. Tobias Adrian & Emanuel Moench & Hyun Song Shin, 2013. "Dynamic Leverage Asset Pricing," Staff Reports 625, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    17. Huang, Huichou & MacDonald, Ronald & Zhao, Yang, 2012. "Global Currency Misalignments, Crash Sensitivity, and Downside Insurance Costs," MPRA Paper 53745, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Nov 2013.
    18. Adrian, Tobias & Crump, Richard K. & Moench, Emanuel, 2015. "Regression-based estimation of dynamic asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 211-244.
    19. Frank Kleibergen & Zhaoguo Zhan, 2022. "Misspecification and Weak Identification in Asset Pricing," Papers 2206.13600, arXiv.org.
    20. Malamud, Semyon & Vilkov, Grigory, 2018. "Non-myopic betas," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(2), pages 357-381.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Broker–dealer leverage; Intermediary asset pricing; Dynamic asset pricing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:107:y:2020:i:c:s0261560620301765. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.