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The Impact of Federal Housing Policy on Housing Demand and Homeownership: Evidence from a Quasi-Experiment

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  • Davis, Morris A.
  • Oliner, Stephen D.
  • Peter, Tobias J.
  • Pinto, Edward J.

Abstract

Federal housing policy promotes homeownership by subsidizing mortgage debt for many households with few assets and low credit scores. In this paper, we exploit the Federal Housing Administration's (FHA's) surprise 50 basis point cut to its annual mortgage insurance premium in January 2015 to study the impact of federal housing policy and interest rates on housing demand for a population of households likely to be influenced by changes to policy. The premium cut, which reduced monthly payments the same amount as a three-quarter percentage point drop in the mortgage rate, increased the purchasing power of the typical FHA borrower by 6 percent. Our analysis shows FHA borrowers increased the value of the housing they purchased by 2.5 percentage points relative to a control group of borrowers in areas with minimal FHA presence. The rise in spending reflected an increase in constant-quality home prices, with no significant change in the quality of housing purchased by FHA buyers. We also estimate that the premium cut induced approximately 17,000 households to become first-time homebuyers in the initial year after the cut, an increase that fell far short of the FHA's projection.

Suggested Citation

  • Davis, Morris A. & Oliner, Stephen D. & Peter, Tobias J. & Pinto, Edward J., 2020. "The Impact of Federal Housing Policy on Housing Demand and Homeownership: Evidence from a Quasi-Experiment," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jhouse:v:48:y:2020:i:c:s1051137719300075
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2020.101670
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    1. Piazzesi, M. & Schneider, M., 2016. "Housing and Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1547-1640, Elsevier.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Lang, Jan Hannes & Menno, Dominik, 2023. "The state-dependent impact of changes in bank capital requirements," Discussion Papers 19/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Laufer, Steven & Tzur-Ilan, Nitzan, 2021. "The effect of LTV-based risk weights on house prices: Evidence from an Israeli macroprudential policy," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    4. Jane K. Dokko, 2018. "Housing affordability: recommendations for new research to guide policy," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue 24-3, pages 138-144.
    5. Damen, Sven & Schildermans, Stef, 2022. "Capital requirements, mortgage rates and house prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    FHA; housing demand; homeownership; housing policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R28 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Government Policy
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • R38 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Government Policy

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