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Future fiscal and budgetary shocks

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Author Info
Hoon, Hian Teck
Phelps, Edmund S.

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Abstract

We study the effects of future tax and budgetary shocks in a non-monetary and possibly non-Ricardian economy. An (unanticipated) temporary labor tax cut to be effective on a given future date--a delayed "debt bomb"--causes at once a drop in the (unit) value placed on the firms' business asset, the customer, with the result that share prices, the hourly wage, and employment drop in tandem. This paradox of reduced activity through announcement of future "stimulus" does not hinge on an upward jump of long interest rates. A future tax-rate cut lacking a "sunset" provision has the same negative effects.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Theory.

Volume (Year): 143 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (November)
Pages: 499-518
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Handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:143:y:2008:i:1:p:499-518

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622869

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Keywords: Future shocks Business assets Employment;

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  2. Gauti Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2004. "Optimal monetary and fiscal policy in a liquidity trap," Discussion Papers 0405-02, Columbia University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-71, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2002. "Accounting for the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 22-27, May. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Hall, Robert E, 1997. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations and the Allocation of Time," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(1), pages S223-50, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior Of U.S. Public Debt And Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2004. "Stock Prices, News and Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 10548, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Roberto Perotti, 1999. "Fiscal Policy In Good Times And Bad," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(4), pages 1399-1436, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1999. "Monetary policy and asset price volatility," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 77-128. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Rotemberg, Julio J & Woodford, Michael, 1992. "Oligopolistic Pricing and the Effects of Aggregate Demand on Economic Activity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(6), pages 1153-1207, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Ascari, Guido & Rankin, Neil, 2007. "Perpetual youth and endogenous labor supply: A problem and a possible solution," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 708-723, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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