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The relationship between house prices and house purchase loans: The Spanish case

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  • Gimeno, Ricardo
  • Martí­nez-Carrascal, Carmen

Abstract

This paper looks at recent developments in house purchase loans and house prices in Spain and the linkages between them. It aims at identifying deviations of these variables from their equilibrium levels, and for this purpose, we estimate a vector error-correction model. The results show that both variables are interdependent in the long-run and that both variables were above their equilibrium level by the end of the sample period (2009:Q1). The paper also offers insight into how overvaluation (overindebtedness) in house prices can lead to a false sense of no overindebtedness (house prices overvaluation).

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

Volume (Year): 34 (2010)
Issue (Month): 8 (August)
Pages: 1849-1855

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:34:y:2010:i:8:p:1849-1855

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Related research

Keywords: Mortgage debt House prices Error correction;

References

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  1. De Haas, Ralph & Ferreira, Daniel & Taci, Anita, 2010. "What determines the composition of banks' loan portfolios? Evidence from transition countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 388-398, February.
  2. Boris Hofmann, 2004. "The Determinants of Bank Credit in Industrialized Countries: Do Property Prices Matter?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 203-234, 07.
  3. Trevor Fitzpatrick & Kieran Mcquinn, 2007. "House Prices And Mortgage Credit: Empirical Evidence For Ireland," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 75(1), pages 82-103, 01.
  4. Matteo Iacoviello, 2002. "House prices, borrowing constraints and monetary policy in the business cycle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 542, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 06 Dec 2004.
  5. Luci Ellis, 2005. "Disinflation and the dynamics of mortgage debt," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 5-20 Bank for International Settlements.
  6. Sommervoll, Dag Einar & Borgersen, Trond-Arne & Wennemo, Tom, 2010. "Endogenous housing market cycles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 557-567, March.
  7. Oikarinen, Elias, 2009. "Interaction between housing prices and household borrowing: The Finnish case," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 747-756, April.
  8. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol & Smith, Richard J., 2000. "Structural analysis of vector error correction models with exogenous I(1) variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 293-343, August.
  9. Jorge Martínez Pagés & Luis Ángel Maza, 2003. "Analysis of house prices in Spain," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0307, Banco de Espa�a.
  10. Gerlach, Stefan & Peng, Wensheng, 2004. "Bank Lending and Property Prices in Hong Kong," CEPR Discussion Papers 4797, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Niinimäki, J.-P., 2009. "Does collateral fuel moral hazard in banking?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 514-521, March.
  12. Delgado, J. & Salas, V. & Saurina, J., 2007. "Joint size and ownership specialization in bank lending," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 3563-3583, December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Fabian Lindner, 2014. "The Interaction of Mortgage Credit and Housing Prices in the US," IMK Working Paper 133-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  2. Heeho Kim & SaeWoon Park & Sun Hye Lee, 2012. "House Price and Bank Lending in a Premium Submarket in Korea," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 15(1), pages 1-42.
  3. Zhang, Yanbing & Hua, Xiuping & Zhao, Liang, 2011. "Monetary policy and housing prices; a case study of Chinese experience in 1999-2010," BOFIT Discussion Papers 17/2011, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  4. Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2011. "Fiscal policy and financial market movements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 231-251, January.
  5. Mandell, Svante & Wilhelmsson, Mats, 2013. "Financial infrastructure and house prices," Working papers in Transport Economics 2013:7, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
  6. Christian Heebøll-Christensen, 2011. "Financial Instability - a Result of Excess Liquidity or Credit Cycles?," Discussion Papers 11-21, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  7. André K. Anundsen & Eilev S. Jansen, 2013. "Self-reinforcing effects between housing prices and credit: an extended version," Discussion Papers 756, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
  8. Bhardwaj, Geetesh & Sengupta, Rajdeep, 2012. "Subprime mortgage design," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1503-1519.
  9. Zhang, Yanbing & Hua, Xiuping & Zhao, Liang, 2012. "Exploring determinants of housing prices: A case study of Chinese experience in 1999–2010," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2349-2361.
  10. Meniago, Christelle & Mukuddem-Petersen, Janine & Petersen, Mark A. & Mongale, Itumeleng P., 2013. "What causes household debt to increase in South Africa?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 482-492.
  11. Anundsen, André K. & Jansen, Eilev S., 2013. "Self-reinforcing effects between housing prices and credit," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 192-212.
  12. Hott, C., 2011. "Lending behavior and real estate prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 2429-2442, September.

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