IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v119y2020ics037842662030176x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Local demand shocks, excess comovement and return predictability

Author

Listed:
  • Broman, Markus S.

Abstract

I investigate the importance of local demand shocks on excess comovements and return predictability for 4560 twin-pairs of Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) from 15 country-pairs. The returns on ETFs traded in the same country comove excessively with one another. These comovements are stronger for funds with greater liquidity and more competitors in the local market. In contrast, comovements are not materially different among ETFs that are attractive to fundamental (factor) investors. A local measure of mispricing, based on price-deviations between ETFs and their foreign peers, strongly predicts ETF return reversals. Betting against local mispricing yields significant abnormal returns of up to 20 percent per year after trading costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Broman, Markus S., 2020. "Local demand shocks, excess comovement and return predictability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:119:y:2020:i:c:s037842662030176x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2020.105910
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S037842662030176X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2020.105910?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Greenwood, Robin & Thesmar, David, 2011. "Stock price fragility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(3), pages 471-490.
    2. Geert Bekaert & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Arnaud Mehl, 2014. "The Global Crisis and Equity Market Contagion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2597-2649, December.
    3. Söhnke M. Bartram & John M. Griffin & Tae-Hoon Lim & David T. Ng, 2015. "How Important Are Foreign Ownership Linkages for International Stock Returns?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(11), pages 3036-3072.
    4. Binh Do & Robert Faff, 2012. "Are Pairs Trading Profits Robust To Trading Costs?," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 35(2), pages 261-287, June.
    5. Markus S. Broman & Pauline Shum, 2018. "Relative Liquidity, Fund Flows and Short†Term Demand: Evidence from Exchange†Traded Funds," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 53(1), pages 87-115, February.
    6. Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Laura Veldkamp, 2009. "Information Immobility and the Home Bias Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(3), pages 1187-1215, June.
    7. John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
    8. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
    9. Lee, Charles M C & Shleifer, Andrei & Thaler, Richard H, 1991. "Investor Sentiment and the Closed-End Fund Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 75-109, March.
    10. Faias, José A. & Ferreira, Miguel A., 2017. "Does institutional ownership matter for international stock return comovement?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 64-83.
    11. Coval, Joshua & Stafford, Erik, 2007. "Asset fire sales (and purchases) in equity markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 479-512, November.
    12. Dong Lou, 2012. "A Flow-Based Explanation for Return Predictability," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(12), pages 3457-3489.
    13. Merton, Robert C, 1987. "A Simple Model of Capital Market Equilibrium with Incomplete Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 483-510, July.
    14. Green, T. Clifton & Hwang, Byoung-Hyoun, 2009. "Price-based return comovement," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 37-50, July.
    15. Peng, Lin & Xiong, Wei, 2006. "Investor attention, overconfidence and category learning," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 563-602, June.
    16. Itzhak Ben‐David & Francesco Franzoni & Rabih Moussawi, 2018. "Do ETFs Increase Volatility?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(6), pages 2471-2535, December.
    17. Allaudeen Hameed & Wenjin Kang & S. Viswanathan, 2010. "Stock Market Declines and Liquidity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 257-293, February.
    18. Abe De Jong & Leonard Rosenthal & Mathijs A. Van Dijk, 2009. "The Risk and Return of Arbitrage in Dual-Listed Companies," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 13(3), pages 495-520.
    19. John R. Graham & Si Li & Jiaping Qiu, 2012. "Managerial Attributes and Executive Compensation," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(1), pages 144-186.
    20. Bodurtha, James N, Jr & Kim, Dong-Soon & Lee, Charles M C, 1995. "Closed-End Country Funds and U.S. Market Sentiment," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 879-918.
    21. Alex Edmans & Itay Goldstein & Wei Jiang, 2012. "The Real Effects of Financial Markets: The Impact of Prices on Takeovers," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(3), pages 933-971, June.
    22. Cheol S. Eun & Sanjiv Sabherwal, 2003. "Cross‐Border Listings and Price Discovery: Evidence from U.S.‐Listed Canadian Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 549-575, April.
    23. Froot, Kenneth A. & Dabora, Emil M., 1999. "How are stock prices affected by the location of trade?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 189-216, August.
    24. Gagnon, Louis & Andrew Karolyi, G., 2010. "Multi-market trading and arbitrage," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 53-80, July.
    25. Hameed, Allaudeen & Xie, Jing, 2019. "Preference for dividends and return comovement," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 103-125.
    26. Malcolm Wardlaw, 2020. "Measuring Mutual Fund Flow Pressure as Shock to Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(6), pages 3221-3243, December.
    27. Cheol S. Eun & Sanjiv Sabherwal, 2003. "Cross-Border Listings and Price Discovery: Evidence from U.S.-Listed Canadian Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 549-576, April.
    28. Broman, Markus S., 2016. "Liquidity, style investing and excess comovement of exchange-traded fund returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 27-53.
    29. Malceniece, Laura & Malcenieks, Kārlis & Putniņš, Tālis J., 2019. "High frequency trading and comovement in financial markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 381-399.
    30. Chen, Honghui & Singal, Vijay & Whitelaw, Robert F., 2016. "Comovement revisited," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(3), pages 624-644.
    31. Gagnon, Louis & Karolyi, G. Andrew, 2009. "Information, Trading Volume, and International Stock Return Comovements: Evidence from Cross-Listed Stocks," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(4), pages 953-986, August.
    32. Kalok Chan & Vicentiu Covrig & Lilian Ng, 2005. "What Determines the Domestic Bias and Foreign Bias? Evidence from Mutual Fund Equity Allocations Worldwide," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1495-1534, June.
    33. Philip Bond & Alex Edmans & Itay Goldstein, 2012. "The Real Effects of Financial Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 339-360, October.
    34. Alok Kumar & Charles M.C. Lee, 2006. "Retail Investor Sentiment and Return Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2451-2486, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fetherolf, Raylin & Lovelace, Kelley Bergsma, 2023. "Dimensions of national culture and R2 around the world," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Broman, Markus S., 2016. "Liquidity, style investing and excess comovement of exchange-traded fund returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 27-53.
    2. Do, Hung X. & Nguyen, Nhut H. & Nguyen, Quan M.P., 2022. "Multinationals and stock return comovement," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    3. repec:wyi:journl:002166 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Chen, Haiqiang & Choi, Paul Moon Sub, 2012. "Does information vault Niagara Falls? Cross-listed trading in New York and Toronto," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 175-199.
    5. Peress, Joel & Schmidt, Daniel, 2021. "Noise traders incarnate: Describing a realistic noise trading process," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    6. Larrain, Borja & Muñoz, Daniel & Tessada, José, 2017. "Asset fire sales in equity markets: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 71-85.
    7. Blankespoor, Elizabeth & deHaan, Ed & Marinovic, Iván, 2020. "Disclosure processing costs, investors’ information choice, and equity market outcomes: A review," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2).
    8. Gagnon, Louis & Andrew Karolyi, G., 2010. "Multi-market trading and arbitrage," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 53-80, July.
    9. Cook, Douglas O. & Luo, Shikong (Scott), 2023. "Fund flow-induced volatility and the cost of debt," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    10. Jiang, Jinglin & Nanda, Vikram & Xiao, Steven Chong, 2021. "Stock-market disruptions and corporate disclosure policies," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    11. Li, Frank Weikai & Sun, Chengzhu, 2022. "Information acquisition and expected returns: Evidence from EDGAR search traffic," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    12. Itzhak Ben-DAVID & Francesco A. FRANZONI & Rabih MOUSSAWI & John SEDUNOV III, 2015. "The Granular Nature of Large Institutional Investors," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 15-67, Swiss Finance Institute, revised Apr 2016.
    13. Barberis, Nicholas & Shleifer, Andrei & Wurgler, Jeffrey, 2005. "Comovement," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 283-317, February.
    14. Jacobs, Heiko & Weber, Martin, 2015. "On the determinants of pairs trading profitability," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 75-97.
    15. Czech, Robert & Huang, Shiyang & Lou, Dong & Wang, Tianyu, 2021. "An unintended consequence of holding dollar assets," Bank of England working papers 953, Bank of England.
    16. Mitra, Sovan & Raju Chinthalapati, V.L. & Clark, Ephraim & McGroarty, Frank, 2019. "Stock-ADR Arbitrage: Microstructure Risk," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    17. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, August.
    18. Wu, Qinqin & Hao, Ying & Lu, Jing, 2017. "Investor sentiment, idiosyncratic risk, and mispricing of American Depository Receipt," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-14.
    19. Johan Sulaeman & Kelsey D. Wei, 2019. "Sell-Side Analysts and Stock Mispricing: Evidence from Mutual Fund Flow-Driven Trading Pressure," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(11), pages 5427-5448, November.
    20. Huang, Shiyang & Huang, Yulin & Lin, Tse-Chun, 2019. "Attention allocation and return co-movement: Evidence from repeated natural experiments," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 369-383.
    21. Söhnke M. Bartram & John M. Griffin & Tae-Hoon Lim & David T. Ng, 2015. "How Important Are Foreign Ownership Linkages for International Stock Returns?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(11), pages 3036-3072.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Preferred habitat; Correlated demand; Mispricing; Arbitrage; Comovement; Return Predictability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:119:y:2020:i:c:s037842662030176x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.