Measuring misalignments in the Korean exchange rate
AbstractThis paper measures to what extent the real effective exchange rate of the Korean won is misaligned from its equilibrium value by estimating the equilibrium value using the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) approach. The economic fundamentals such as the terms of trade, the relative price of non-traded to traded goods, net foreign assets and real interest rate differentials are employed to assess the equilibrium exchange rate. Considering the drastic changes in Korea's trade pattern, the trade partner weights, which are used to compute the real effective exchange rate, are not fixed, but variable. The estimation results using the quarterly data from 1982Q1 to 2009Q4 indicate that the actual exchange rate of the Korean won was substantially overvalued for the period from 2005Q1 to 2007Q4, and substantially undervalued for the period from 2008Q2 to 2009Q3. The actual exchange rate deviates from the BEER and from the long-run equilibrium (or sustainable value) of the BEER by 32% and by 24% respectively in 2008Q4.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Japan and the World Economy.
Volume (Year): 24 (2012)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505557
Korean won; Misalignment; Behavioral equilibrium exchange rate;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Saikkonen, Pentti & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2001.
"Testing for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process with structural shifts,"
SFB 373 Discussion Papers
1998,82, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Saikkonen, Pentti & Lutkepohl, Helmut, 2000. "Testing for the Cointegrating Rank of a VAR Process with Structural Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(4), pages 451-64, October.
- Saikkonen, Pentti & L tkepohl, Helmut, 2002.
"Testing For A Unit Root In A Time Series With A Level Shift At Unknown Time,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(02), pages 313-348, April.
- Helmut Luetkepohl & Pentti Saikkonen, 2000. "Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Level Shift at Unknown Time," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0342, Econometric Society.
- Saikkonen, Pentti & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 1999. "Testing for a unit root in a time series with a level shift at unknown time," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1999,72, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Takuji Kinkyo, 2008. "Disorderly adjustments to the misalignments in the Korean won," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 32(1), pages 111-124, January.
- Isabell Koske, 2008. "Assessing the Equilibrium Exchange Rate of the Malaysian Ringgit: A Comparison of Alternative Approaches," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 22(2), pages 179-208, 06.
- Funke, Michael & Rahn, Jörg, 2004.
"Just how undervalued is the Chinese renminbi?,"
BOFIT Discussion Papers
14/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Bénassy-Quéré, Agnès & Lahrèche-Révil, Amina & Mignon, Valérie, 2011.
"World-consistent equilibrium exchange rates,"
Journal of the Japanese and International Economies,
Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 12-32, June.
- Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 1998. "Monetary Policy in the Aftermath of Currency Crisis:The Case of Asia," IMF Working Papers 98/170, International Monetary Fund.
- Saikkonen, Pentti & L tkepohl, Helmut, 2000.
"Testing For The Cointegrating Rank Of A Var Process With An Intercept,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(03), pages 373-406, June.
- Saikkonen, Pentti & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 1998. "Testing for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process with an intercept," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1998,51, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Wang, Yajie & Hui, Xiaofeng & Soofi, Abdol S., 2007. "Estimating renminbi (RMB) equilibrium exchange rate," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 417-429.
- Alexius, Annika, 2001. "Uncovered Interest Parity Revisited," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 505-17, August.
- Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
- Chionis, Dionysios & MacDonald, Ronald, 2002. "Aggregate and disaggregate measures of the foreign exchange risk premium," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 57-84, April.
- Menzie D. Chinn, 2005.
"A Primer on Real Effective Exchange Rates: Determinants, Overvaluation, Trade Flows and Competitive Devaluation,"
NBER Working Papers
11521, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Menzie Chinn, 2006. "A Primer on Real Effective Exchange Rates: Determinants, Overvaluation, Trade Flows and Competitive Devaluation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 115-143, January.
- Ronald MacDonald & Peter B. Clark, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals - A Methodological Comparison of BEERs and FEERs," IMF Working Papers 98/67, International Monetary Fund.
- Ronald MacDonald & Jun Nagayasu, 2000.
"The Long-Run Relationship Between Real Exchange Rates and Real Interest Rate Differentials: A Panel Study,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(1), pages 5.
- Jun Nagayasu & Ronald MacDonald, 1999. "The Long-Run Relationship Between Real Exchange Rates and Real Interest Rate Differentials - A Panel Study," IMF Working Papers 99/37, International Monetary Fund.
- Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1999. "Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 306-333.
- Ronald MacDonald, 1997. "What Determines Real Exchange Rates? The Long and Short of It," IMF Working Papers 97/21, International Monetary Fund.
- Ronald MacDonald & Preethike Dias, 2007. "Behavioural equilibrium exchange rate estimates and implied exchange rate adjustments for ten countries," Working Papers 2007_12, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wendy Shamier).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.