IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jaitra/v61y2017icp6-14.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The underlying drivers and future development of air cargo

Author

Listed:
  • Kupfer, Franziska
  • Meersman, Hilde
  • Onghena, Evy
  • Van de Voorde, Eddy

Abstract

Air cargo plays a crucial role in the air transport chain and in the globalized economy. As for other modes of transport, the demand for air cargo is a derived demand. Previous studies showed that the main determinants of air cargo demand are merchandise trade and the share of manufactures in merchandise trade. This paper aims to fill a gap in the existing literature by additionally taking the influence of air freight yields and oil prices into account when modelling the global air cargo development. Furthermore, it provides an insight into the future development of air cargo. Forecasts until 2023 are made based on a number of scenarios for the main determinants of air cargo demand. Moreover, an insight is provided into the current air cargo market, including traffic levels and different types of actors and traffic flows. The results are useful not only for academics but also for industry stakeholders for which air cargo is an important contributor to profit and/or cash levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Kupfer, Franziska & Meersman, Hilde & Onghena, Evy & Van de Voorde, Eddy, 2017. "The underlying drivers and future development of air cargo," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 6-14.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:61:y:2017:i:c:p:6-14
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2016.07.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0969699715301678
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2016.07.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chang, Yu-Hern & Chang, Yu-Wei, 2009. "Air cargo expansion and economic growth: Finding the empirical link," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 264-265.
    2. Kasarda, John D. & Green, Jonathan D., 2005. "Air cargo as an economic development engine: A note on opportunities and constraints," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(6), pages 459-462.
    3. Budd, Lucy & Ison, Stephen, 2017. "The role of dedicated freighter aircraft in the provision of global airfreight services," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 34-40.
    4. Lo, Winnie Wai Ling & Wan, Yulai & Zhang, Anming, 2015. "Empirical estimation of price and income elasticities of air cargo demand: The case of Hong Kong," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 309-324.
    5. Chao, Ching-Cheng & Hsu, Ching-Wen, 2014. "Cost analysis of air cargo transport and effects of fluctuations in fuel price," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 51-56.
    6. Merkert, Rico & Ploix, Boris, 2014. "The impact of terminal re-organisation on belly-hold freight operation chains at airports," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 78-84.
    7. Zhang, Anming & Zhang, Yimin, 2002. "Issues on liberalization of air cargo services in international aviation," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 275-287.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wallbach, Sören, 2020. "Assimilation and Diffusion of Multi-Sided Platforms in Dynamic B2B Networks: Inhibiting Factors and Their Consequences," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 123277, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    2. Jo, Ah-Hyun & Chang, Young-Tae, 2023. "The effect of airport efficiency on air traffic, using DEA and multilateral resistance terms gravity models," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    3. Alexander, D.W. & Merkert, R., 2021. "Applications of gravity models to evaluate and forecast US international air freight markets post-GFC," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 52-62.
    4. Li, Tao, 2020. "A SWOT analysis of China's air cargo sector in the context of COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    5. Aydın, Umut & Ülengin, Burç, 2022. "Analyzing air cargo flows of Turkish domestic routes: A comparative analysis of gravity models," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    6. Simon Emde & Hamid Abedinnia & Anne Lange & Christoph H. Glock, 2020. "Scheduling personnel for the build-up of unit load devices at an air cargo terminal with limited space," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 42(2), pages 397-426, June.
    7. Fabian Baier & Peter Berster & Marc Gelhausen, 2022. "Global cargo gravitation model: airports matter for forecasts," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 219-238, February.
    8. Balliauw, Matteo & Meersman, Hilde & Onghena, Evy & Van de Voorde, Eddy, 2018. "US all-cargo carriers’ cost structure and efficiency: A stochastic frontier analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 29-45.
    9. Wu, You & Lange, Anne & Mantin, Benny, 2022. "Who benefits from air service agreements? The case of international air cargo operations," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 281-303.
    10. Yu, Shunan & Yang, Zhongzhen & Zhang, Wei, 2019. "Differential pricing strategies of air freight transport carriers in the spot market," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 9-15.
    11. Hong, Seock-Jin & Randall, Wesley & Han, Keunsoo & Malhan, Amit Sundeep, 2018. "Estimation viability of dedicated freighter aircraft of combination carriers: A data envelopment and principal component analysis," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 12-20.
    12. Christopher Findlay & Hein Roelfsema & Niall Van De Wouw, 2021. "Feeling the Pulse of Global Value Chains: Air Cargo and COVID-19," Working Papers DP-2021-23, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    13. Chen, Zhe & Jiang, Hai, 2020. "Impacts of high-speed rail on domestic air cargo traffic in China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 1-13.
    14. Akinyemi, Yingigba Chioma, 2023. "Air cargo demand in Africa: Application of cointegration and error correction modelling techniques," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    15. Van Asch, Thomas & Dewulf, Wouter & Kupfer, Franziska & Cárdenas, Ivan & Van de Voorde, Eddy, 2020. "Cross-border e-commerce logistics – Strategic success factors for airports," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Akinyemi, Yingigba Chioma, 2023. "Air cargo demand in Africa: Application of cointegration and error correction modelling techniques," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    2. Van Asch, Thomas & Dewulf, Wouter & Kupfer, Franziska & Cárdenas, Ivan & Van de Voorde, Eddy, 2020. "Cross-border e-commerce logistics – Strategic success factors for airports," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    3. David Tan & Kan Tsui, 2017. "Investigating causality in international air freight and business travel: The case of Australia," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 54(5), pages 1178-1193, April.
    4. Yuen, Andrew & Zhang, Anming & Hui, Yer Van & Leung, Lawrence C. & Fung, Michael, 2017. "Is developing air cargo airports in the hinterland the way of the future?," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 15-25.
    5. Hong, Seock-Jin & Randall, Wesley & Han, Keunsoo & Malhan, Amit Sundeep, 2018. "Estimation viability of dedicated freighter aircraft of combination carriers: A data envelopment and principal component analysis," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 12-20.
    6. Wang, Yue & Wong, Collin Wai Hung & Cheung, Tommy King-Yin & Wu, Edmund Yangming, 2021. "How influential factors affect aviation networks: A Bayesian network analysis," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    7. Gong, Qiang & Wang, Kun & Fan, Xingli & Fu, Xiaowen & Xiao, Yi-bin, 2018. "International trade drivers and freight network analysis - The case of the Chinese air cargo sector," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 253-262.
    8. Farshid Azadian, 2020. "Assessing the effect of urban socioeconomic factors and the financial crisis of 2008 on domestic air cargo traffic in Florida," Transportation, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 223-241, February.
    9. Salih Kalayci & Gozde Yanginlar, 2016. "The Effects of Economic Growth and Foreign Direct Investment on Air Transportation: Evidence from Turkey," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(3), pages 154-162, March.
    10. Li, Tao, 2020. "A SWOT analysis of China's air cargo sector in the context of COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    11. Hakim, Md Mahbubul & Merkert, Rico, 2019. "Econometric evidence on the determinants of air transport in South Asian countries," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 120-126.
    12. Lo, Winnie Wai Ling & Wan, Yulai & Zhang, Anming, 2015. "Empirical estimation of price and income elasticities of air cargo demand: The case of Hong Kong," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 309-324.
    13. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6792 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Ali, Rafaqet & Bakhsh, Khuda & Yasin, Muhammad Asim, 2023. "Causal nexus between air transportation and economic growth in BRICS countries," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    15. Jong Hae Choi & Yong Hwa Park, 2020. "Investigating Paradigm Shift from Price to Value in the Air Cargo Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-15, December.
    16. Wang, Yanzai & Hao, Chengzhi & Liu, Dawei, 2019. "The spatial and temporal dimensions of the interdependence between the airline industry and the Chinese economy," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 201-210.
    17. Yuan, Xue-Ming & Low, Joyce M.W. & Ching Tang, Loon, 2010. "Roles of the airport and logistics services on the economic outcomes of an air cargo supply chain," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(2), pages 215-225, October.
    18. Rezaei, Jafar & Hemmes, Alexander & Tavasszy, Lori, 2017. "Multi-criteria decision-making for complex bundling configurations in surface transportation of air freight," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 95-105.
    19. Tolcha, Tassew Dufera & Bråthen, Svein & Holmgren, Johan, 2020. "Air transport demand and economic development in sub-Saharan Africa: Direction of causality," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    20. Deng, Yu & Zhang, Yahua & Wang, Kun, 2022. "An analysis of the Chinese scheduled freighter network during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    21. Benoit Chèze & Pascal Gastineau & Julien Chevallier, 2010. "Forecasting air traffic and corresponding jet-fuel demande until 2025," Working Papers hal-02489878, HAL.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:61:y:2017:i:c:p:6-14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-air-transport-management/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.