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Rate of return parity and currency crises in experimental asset markets

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  • Childs, Jason

Abstract

This paper explores the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on the predictive power of rate of return parity in a laboratory environment, extending the work of Fisher and Kelly [Fisher, E.O., Kelly, F.S., 2000. Experimental foreign exchange markets. Pacific Economic Review 5, 365-388] and Childs and Mestelman [Childs, J., Mestelman, S., 2006. Rate of return parity in experimental asset markets. Review of International Economics 14, 331-347]. While these works use unchanging exchange rates, this paper allows for a change in the exchange rate between laboratory currencies. The data indicate rate of return parity is weakened by the potential for a currency crisis. The results also indicate that currency crises can be caused by self-fulfilling prophecies and that the level of reserves with which a fixed exchange rate is defended impacts the timing of a crisis but does not significantly change the likelihood of a currency crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Childs, Jason, 2009. "Rate of return parity and currency crises in experimental asset markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 157-170, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:19:y:2009:i:1:p:157-170
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Rational and Self-fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 72-81, March.
    2. Jason Childs & Stuart Mestelman, 2006. "Rate‐of‐return Parity in Experimental Asset Markets," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 331-347, August.
    3. Smith, Vernon L & Suchanek, Gerry L & Williams, Arlington W, 1988. "Bubbles, Crashes, and Endogenous Expectations in Experimental Spot Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1119-1151, September.
    4. Menzie D. Chinn & Guy Meredith, 2004. "Monetary Policy and Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Parity," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(3), pages 409-430, November.
    5. Suheyla Ozyildirim & Bulent Yaman, 2005. "Optimal versus adequate level of international reserves: evidence for Turkey," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(13), pages 1557-1569.
    6. Chaboud, Alain P. & Wright, Jonathan H., 2005. "Uncovered interest parity: it works, but not for long," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 349-362, July.
    7. Frank Heinemann, 2002. "Exchange-rate Attack as a Coordination Game: Theory and Experimental Evidence," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 18(4), pages 462-478.
    8. Mendoza, Ronald U., 2004. "International reserve-holding in the developing world: self insurance in a crisis-prone era?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 61-82, March.
    9. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1998. " Open-Economy Macroeconomics: Developments in Theory and Policy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(1), pages 247-275, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Owen Powell & Natalia Shestakova, 2017. "Experimental asset markets: behavior and bubbles," Chapters, in: Morris Altman (ed.), Handbook of Behavioural Economics and Smart Decision-Making, chapter 21, pages 375-391, Edward Elgar Publishing.

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