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Rate-of-return Parity in Experimental Asset Markets

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  • Jason Childs
  • Stuart Mestelman

Abstract

This paper applies experimental methods to evaluate the completeness of arbitrage and rate-of-return parity in simultaneous asset markets in which the assets are denominated in different currencies. Two assets, which return uncertain, but known, dividends in each trading period, are traded over 20 periods, after which the asset has no value. Results indicate that risk-neutral rate-of-return parity is a strong predictor of relative asset prices when assets have common expected dividends and the expected dividends have common variances. The predictive power of risk-neutral rate-of-return parity is reduced as the assets become differentiated. Copyright � 2006 The Authors; Journal compilation � 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Review of International Economics.

Volume (Year): 14 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 (08)
Pages: 331-347

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Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:14:y:2006:i:3:p:331-347

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References

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  1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2000. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Working Papers 7777, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Kenneth A. Froot & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1989. "Interpreting Tests of Forward Discount Bias Using Survey Data on Exchange Rate Expectations," NBER Working Papers 1963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
  4. Smith, Vernon L & Suchanek, Gerry L & Williams, Arlington W, 1988. "Bubbles, Crashes, and Endogenous Expectations in Experimental Spot Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1119-51, September.
  5. Ayuso, Juan & Restoy, Fernando, 1996. "Interest rate parity and foreign exchange risk premia in the ERM," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 369-382, June.
  6. Sunder, S., 1992. "Experimental Asset Markets: A Survey," GSIA Working Papers 1992-19, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  7. Frachot, Antoine, 1996. "A reexamination of the uncovered interest rate parity hypothesis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 419-437, June.
  8. E. Scott Mayfield & Robert G. Murphy, 1993. "Interest Rate Parity And The Exchange Risk Premium: Evidence From Panel Data," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 239, Boston College Department of Economics.
  9. Smith, Vernon L, 1985. "Experimental Economics: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 264-72, March.
  10. Allan W. Gregory, 1987. "Testing Interest Rate Parity and Rational Expectations for Canada and the United States," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 20(2), pages 289-305, May.
  11. Dutton, Marilyn Miller, 1993. "Real interest rate parity new measures and tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 62-77, February.
  12. De Long, J. Bradford & Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H. & Waldmann, Robert J., 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Scholarly Articles 3725552, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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Cited by:
  1. Jason Childs, 2007. "Rate of Return Parity with Robot Asset Traders," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 1-12, February.
  2. Childs, Jason, 2009. "Rate of return parity and currency crises in experimental asset markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 157-170, February.

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