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Nonlinear serial dependence and the weak-form efficiency of Asian emerging stock markets

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  • Lim, Kian-Ping
  • Brooks, Robert D.
  • Hinich, Melvin J.

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to re-examine the weak-form efficiency of 10 Asian emerging stock markets. Using a battery of nonlinearity tests, the statistical results reveal that all the returns series still contain predictable nonlinearities even after removing linear serial correlation from the data. The next stage of sub-sample analysis using the Hinich [Hinich, M., 1996. Testing for dependence in the input to a linear time series model. Journal of Nonparametric Statistics 6, 205-221] bicorrelation test shows that the 10 Asian series follow a pure noise process for long periods of time, only to be interspersed with brief periods of strong nonlinear dependence. The exploratory investigation found that the cross-country differences in nonlinear departure from market efficiency can be explained by market size and trading activity, while the transient burst of nonlinear periods in each individual market can be attributed largely to the occurrence of economic and political events.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money.

Volume (Year): 18 (2008)
Issue (Month): 5 (December)
Pages: 527-544

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Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:18:y:2008:i:5:p:527-544

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/intfin

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Cited by:
  1. Todea, Alexandru & Zoicas Ienciu, Adrian, 2011. "Technical Analysis and Stochastic Properties of Exchange Rate Movements: Empirical Evidence from the Romanian Currency Market," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 175-192, March.
  2. Rico Belda, Paz, 2013. "No linealidad y asimetría en el proceso generador del Índice Ibex35/Nonlinearity and Asymmetry in the Generator Process of Ibex35 Index," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 31, pages 555-576, Septiembr.
  3. Ülkü, Numan & Prodan, Eugeniu, 2013. "Drivers of technical trend-following rules' profitability in world stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 214-229.
  4. Siow-hooi Tan & Muzafar-shah Habibullah & Roy-wye-leong Khong, 2010. "Non-linear unit root properties of stock prices: Evidence from India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(1), pages 274-281.
  5. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:30:y:2010:i:1:p:274-281 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Aloui, Chaker & Hkiri, Besma, 2014. "Co-movements of GCC emerging stock markets: New evidence from wavelet coherence analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 421-431.
  7. Hiremath, Gourishankar S & Bandi, Kamaiah, 2010. "Some Further Evidence on the Behaviour of Stock Returns in India," MPRA Paper 48518, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Urquhart, Andrew & Hudson, Robert, 2013. "Efficient or adaptive markets? Evidence from major stock markets using very long run historic data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 130-142.
  9. Righi, Marcelo Brutti & Ceretta, Paulo Sergio, 2013. "Risk prediction management and weak form market efficiency in Eurozone financial crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 384-393.
  10. Alexandru Todea & Maria Ulici & Simona Silaghi, 2009. "Adaptive Markets Hypothesis - Evidence from Asia-Pacific Financial Markets," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 1(1), pages 007-013, December.
  11. Kwang-il Choe & Joshua Krausz & Kiseok Nam, 2011. "Technical trading rules for nonlinear dynamics of stock returns: evidence from the G-7 stock markets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 323-353, April.
  12. Majumder, Debasish, 2012. "When the market becomes inefficient: Comparing BRIC markets with markets in the USA," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 84-92.
  13. Todea, Alexandru & Pleşoianu, Anita, 2013. "The influence of foreign portfolio investment on informational efficiency: Empirical evidence from Central and Eastern European stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 34-41.
  14. Majumder, Debasish, 2014. "Asset pricing for inefficient markets: Evidence from China and India," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 282-291.
  15. Wang, Yudong & Liu, Li & Gu, Rongbao, 2009. "Analysis of efficiency for Shenzhen stock market based on multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 271-276, December.
  16. Gourishankar S Hiremath & Bandi Kamaiah, 2010. "Nonlinear Dependence in Stock Returns: Evidences from India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, The Indian Econometric Society, vol. 8(1), pages 69-85, January.

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