A Bayesian dichotomous model with asymmetric link for fraud in insurance
AbstractStandard binary models have been developed to describe the behavior of consumers when they are faced with two choices. The classical logit model presents the feature of the symmetric link function. However, symmetric links do not provide good fits for data where one response is much more frequent than the other (as it happens in the insurance fraud context). In this paper, we use an asymmetric or skewed logit link, proposed by Chen etÂ al. [Chen, M., Dey, D., Shao, Q., 1999. A new skewed link model for dichotomous quantal response data. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 94 (448), 1172-1186], to fit a fraud database from the Spanish insurance market. Bayesian analysis of this model is developed by using data augmentation and Gibbs sampling. The results show that the use of an asymmetric link notably improves the percentage of cases that are correctly classified after the model estimation.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Insurance: Mathematics and Economics.
Volume (Year): 42 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505554
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Viaene, Stijn & Ayuso, Mercedes & Guillen, Montserrat & Van Gheel, Dirk & Dedene, Guido, 2007.
"Strategies for detecting fraudulent claims in the automobile insurance industry,"
European Journal of Operational Research,
Elsevier, vol. 176(1), pages 565-583, January.
- Viaene, Stijn & Ayuso, Mercedes & Guillén, Montserrat & Van Gheel, Dirk & Dedene, Guido, 2007. "Strategies for detecting fraudulent claims in the automobile insurance industry," Open Access publications from Katholieke Universiteit Leuven urn:hdl:123456789/98999, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven.
- D. McFadden & J. Hausman, 1981.
"Specification Tests for the Multinominal Logit Model,"
292, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Hausman, Jerry & McFadden, Daniel, 1984. "Specification Tests for the Multinomial Logit Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(5), pages 1219-40, September.
- Belhadji, B. & Dionne, G., 1997. "Development of an Expert System for Automatic Detection of Automobile Insurance Fraud," Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales de Montreal- 97-06, Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales de Montreal-Chaire de gestion des risques..
- McCulloch, Robert E. & Polson, Nicholas G. & Rossi, Peter E., 2000. "A Bayesian analysis of the multinomial probit model with fully identified parameters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 173-193, November.
- Jean Pinquet & Mercedes Ayuso & Montserrat Guillén, 2007.
"Selection Bias and Auditing Policies for Insurance Claims,"
Journal of Risk & Insurance,
The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 74(2), pages 425-440.
- Mercedes Ayuso & Montserrat Guillén & Jean Pinquet, 2007. "Selection bias and auditing policies for insurance claims," Post-Print hal-00243035, HAL.
- Steven B. Caudill & Mercedes Ayuso & Montserrat Guillén, 2005. "Fraud Detection Using a Multinomial Logit Model With Missing Information," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 72(4), pages 539-550.
- Koop, Gary & Poirier, Dale J., 1993. "Bayesian analysis of logit models using natural conjugate priors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 323-340, April.
- El Bachir Belhadji & George Dionne & Faouzi Tarkhani, 2000. "A Model for the Detection of Insurance Fraud*," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(4), pages 517-538, October.
- Amemiya, Takeshi, 1981. "Qualitative Response Models: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 1483-1536, December.
- Viaene, Stijn & Derrig, RA & Baesens, Bart & Dedene, Guido, 2002. "A comparison of state-of-the-art classification techniques for expert automobile insurance claim fraud detection," Open Access publications from Katholieke Universiteit Leuven urn:hdl:123456789/101074, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wendy Shamier).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.