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Aggregate insider trading in the S&P 500 and the predictability of international equity premia

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  • Guettler, Andre
  • Hable, Patrick
  • Launhardt, Patrick
  • Miebs, Felix

Abstract

We show that aggregate insider trading (AIT) in the S&P 500 is a reliable predictor of the U.S. equity premium, while AIT outside the S&P 500 seems to be uninformative. In an international setting, we find that AIT based on S&P 500 insiders predicts international equity premia. Contrary to our U.S. based measure of AIT, we do not find any predictive content of domestic AIT for international equity premia. The informational content of AIT of S&P 500 insiders for U.S. and international equity premia stems from the insiders’ ability to forecast cash flow news in- and outside the U.S.

Suggested Citation

  • Guettler, Andre & Hable, Patrick & Launhardt, Patrick & Miebs, Felix, 2023. "Aggregate insider trading in the S&P 500 and the predictability of international equity premia," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:54:y:2023:i:c:s1544612323000995
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2023.103725
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Equity risk premium; Aggregate insider trading; Predictive regression; Informed traders;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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