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Forecasting realized variance using asymmetric HAR model with time-varying coefficients

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  • Wu, Xinyu
  • Hou, Xinmeng

Abstract

This paper proposes an asymmetric HAR model with time-varying coefficients (TVC-AHAR) for modeling and forecasting realized variance. The TVC-AHAR model includes good and bad volatilities and assumes the associated time-varying coefficients to be driven by a latent Gaussian autoregressive process. The model is easy to estimate and implement by using maximum likelihood based on Kalman filter. Empirical analysis using two stock market indices of China, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Component Index, shows that our proposed TVC-AHAR model yields more accurate out-of-sample forecasts of realized variance compared with the other models.

Suggested Citation

  • Wu, Xinyu & Hou, Xinmeng, 2019. "Forecasting realized variance using asymmetric HAR model with time-varying coefficients," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 89-95.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:30:y:2019:i:c:p:89-95
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2019.04.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Afees A. Salisu & Rangan Gupta & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna, 2022. "A moving average heterogeneous autoregressive model for forecasting the realized volatility of the US stock market: Evidence from over a century of data," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 384-400, January.
    2. Wei Zhang & Kai Yan & Dehua Shen, 2021. "Can the Baidu Index predict realized volatility in the Chinese stock market?," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-31, December.

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