IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finana/v87y2023ics1057521923001618.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

From BASEL III to BASEL IV and beyond: Expected shortfall and expectile risk measures

Author

Listed:
  • Zaevski, Tsvetelin S.
  • Nedeltchev, Dragomir C.

Abstract

The article contributes to the ongoing search for a market risk measure that is both coherent and elicitable. We compare two traditional measures, namely Value-at-Risk and the expected shortfall, with another relatively novel one established on the expectile probability term. Our research is based on five models: Black–Scholes, exponential tempered stable, Heston, Bates and another stochastic volatility model with a tempered stable jump correction. We apply the general Fourier inversion formula to derive closed form formulas for calculating not only the expectile based risk measure but also the Value-at-Risk and the expected shortfall. These models are calibrated by combining nonlinear programming with simulated annealing at a moving window. Additionally, we compare the generated values of the risk measures with the real ones. Last but not least, we modify the expectile based risk measure as well as the expected shortfall by introducing correction coefficients.

Suggested Citation

  • Zaevski, Tsvetelin S. & Nedeltchev, Dragomir C., 2023. "From BASEL III to BASEL IV and beyond: Expected shortfall and expectile risk measures," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:87:y:2023:i:c:s1057521923001618
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2023.102645
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1057521923001618
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.irfa.2023.102645?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ahelegbey, Daniel Felix & Giudici, Paolo & Mojtahedi, Fatemeh, 2021. "Tail risk measurement in crypto-asset markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    2. Kuan, Chung-Ming & Yeh, Jin-Huei & Hsu, Yu-Chin, 2009. "Assessing value at risk with CARE, the Conditional Autoregressive Expectile models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2), pages 261-270, June.
    3. Adrian Dragulescu & Victor Yakovenko, 2002. "Probability distribution of returns in the Heston model with stochastic volatility," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(6), pages 443-453.
    4. Argyropoulos, Christos & Panopoulou, Ekaterini, 2019. "Backtesting VaR and ES under the magnifying glass," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 22-37.
    5. Del Brio, Esther B. & Mora-Valencia, Andrés & Perote, Javier, 2020. "Risk quantification for commodity ETFs: Backtesting value-at-risk and expected shortfall," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    6. Storti, Giuseppe & Wang, Chao, 2022. "Nonparametric expected shortfall forecasting incorporating weighted quantiles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 224-239.
    7. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Marcelo Brutti Righi & Fernanda Maria Muller & Marlon Ruoso Moresco, 2017. "On a robust risk measurement approach for capital determination errors minimization," Papers 1707.09829, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2020.
    9. Zaevski, Tsvetelin S. & Kim, Young Shin & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2014. "Option pricing under stochastic volatility and tempered stable Lévy jumps," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 101-108.
    10. Bellini, Fabio & Cesarone, Francesco & Colombo, Christian & Tardella, Fabio, 2021. "Risk parity with expectiles," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 291(3), pages 1149-1163.
    11. Bates, David S, 1996. "Jumps and Stochastic Volatility: Exchange Rate Processes Implicit in Deutsche Mark Options," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 69-107.
    12. Hu, Jie & Chen, Yu & Tan, Keqi, 2021. "Estimation Of High Conditional Tail Risk Based On Expectile Regression," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(2), pages 539-570, May.
    13. Song, Shijia & Li, Handong, 2022. "Predicting VaR for China's stock market: A score-driven model based on normal inverse Gaussian distribution," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    14. Tadese, Mekonnen & Drapeau, Samuel, 2020. "Relative bound and asymptotic comparison of expectile with respect to expected shortfall," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 387-399.
    15. Opschoor, Anne & Lucas, André, 2021. "Observation-driven models for realized variances and overnight returns applied to Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 622-633.
    16. Marcin Pitera & Thorsten Schmidt, 2020. "Estimating and backtesting risk under heavy tails," Papers 2010.09937, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    17. Fabio Bellini & Elena Di Bernardino, 2017. "Risk management with expectiles," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(6), pages 487-506, May.
    18. Cai, Jun & Tan, Ken Seng, 2007. "Optimal Retention for a Stop-loss Reinsurance Under the VaR and CTE Risk Measures," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(1), pages 93-112, May.
    19. Bellini, Fabio & Fadina, Tolulope & Wang, Ruodu & Wei, Yunran, 2022. "Parametric measures of variability induced by risk measures," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 270-284.
    20. Fabio Bellini & Tolulope Fadina & Ruodu Wang & Yunran Wei, 2020. "Parametric measures of variability induced by risk measures," Papers 2012.05219, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2022.
    21. Pitera, Marcin & Schmidt, Thorsten, 2022. "Estimating and backtesting risk under heavy tails," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 1-14.
    22. Andrija Mihoci & Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Cathy Yi-Hsuan Chen, 2021. "TERES: Tail Event Risk Expectile Shortfall," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 449-460, March.
    23. Lazar, Emese & Xue, Xiaohan, 2020. "Forecasting risk measures using intraday data in a generalized autoregressive score framework," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1057-1072.
    24. Yang, Baochen & Ma, Yao, 2021. "Value at risk, mispricing and expected returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    25. Dimitriadis, Timo & Schnaitmann, Julie, 2021. "Forecast encompassing tests for the expected shortfall," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 604-621.
    26. Cascos, Ignacio & Ochoa, Maicol, 2021. "Expectile depth: Theory and computation for bivariate datasets," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    27. Johanna F. Ziegel, 2016. "Coherence And Elicitability," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 901-918, October.
    28. Michele Leonardo Bianchi & Stoyan V Stoyanov & Gian Luca Tassinari & Frank J Fabozzi & Sergio M Focardi, 2019. "Handbook of Heavy-Tailed Distributions in Asset Management and Risk Management," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 11118, January.
    29. Heston, Steven L, 1993. "A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 327-343.
    30. Righi, Marcelo Brutti & Müller, Fernanda Maria & Moresco, Marlon Ruoso, 2020. "On a robust risk measurement approach for capital determination errors minimization," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 199-211.
    31. Burzoni, Matteo & Munari, Cosimo & Wang, Ruodu, 2022. "Adjusted Expected Shortfall," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    32. Ren, Rui & Lu, Meng-Jou & Li, Yingxing & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl, 2022. "Financial Risk Meter FRM based on Expectiles," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    33. Hans U. Gerber & Elias S.W. Shiu & Hailiang Yang, 2019. "A constraint-free approach to optimal reinsurance," Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2019(1), pages 62-79, January.
    34. Park, Yang-Ho, 2016. "The effects of asymmetric volatility and jumps on the pricing of VIX derivatives," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(1), pages 313-328.
    35. Marcin Pitera & Thorsten Schmidt, 2022. "Estimating and backtesting risk under heavy tails," Papers 2201.10454, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    36. James Ming Chen, 2018. "On Exactitude in Financial Regulation: Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall, and Expectiles," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-28, June.
    37. Daouia, Abdelaati & Girard, Stéphane & Stupfler, Gilles, 2021. "ExpectHill estimation, extreme risk and heavy tails," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 221(1), pages 97-117.
    38. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    39. Dai, Zhifeng & Kang, Jie & Wen, Fenghua, 2021. "Predicting stock returns: A risk measurement perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    40. Gao, Lingbo & Ye, Wuyi & Guo, Ranran, 2022. "Jointly forecasting the value-at-risk and expected shortfall of Bitcoin with a regime-switching CAViaR model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    41. Newey, Whitney K & Powell, James L, 1987. "Asymmetric Least Squares Estimation and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(4), pages 819-847, July.
    42. Samuel Drapeau & Mekonnen Tadese, 2019. "Relative Bound and Asymptotic Comparison of Expectile with Respect to Expected Shortfall," Papers 1906.09729, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2020.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gao, Suhao & Yu, Zhen, 2023. "Parametric expectile regression and its application for premium calculation," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 242-256.
    2. Daouia, Abdelaati & Stupfler, Gilles & Usseglio-Carleve, Antoine, 2023. "An expectile computation cookbook," TSE Working Papers 23-1458, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    3. Maziar Sahamkhadam, 2021. "Dynamic copula-based expectile portfolios," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(3), pages 209-223, May.
    4. Zaevski, Tsvetelin S. & Kim, Young Shin & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2014. "Option pricing under stochastic volatility and tempered stable Lévy jumps," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 101-108.
    5. Vogel, Harold L. & Werner, Richard A., 2015. "An analytical review of volatility metrics for bubbles and crashes," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 15-28.
    6. Bjørn Eraker & Aoxiang Yang, 2022. "The Price of Higher Order Catastrophe Insurance: The Case of VIX Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(6), pages 3289-3337, December.
    7. F. Cacace & A. Germani & M. Papi, 2019. "On parameter estimation of Heston’s stochastic volatility model: a polynomial filtering method," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 42(2), pages 503-525, December.
    8. Bin Xie & Weiping Li & Nan Liang, 2021. "Pricing S&P 500 Index Options with L\'evy Jumps," Papers 2111.10033, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2021.
    9. Taoufik Bouezmarni & Mohamed Doukali & Abderrahim Taamouti, 2023. "Testing Granger Non-Causality in Expectiles," University of East Anglia School of Economics Working Paper Series 2023-02, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    10. Zura Kakushadze, 2016. "Volatility Smile as Relativistic Effect," Papers 1610.02456, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2017.
    11. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    12. Falko Baustian & Katev{r}ina Filipov'a & Jan Posp'iv{s}il, 2019. "Solution of option pricing equations using orthogonal polynomial expansion," Papers 1912.06533, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2020.
    13. Bakshi, Gurdip S. & Zhiwu, Chen, 1997. "An alternative valuation model for contingent claims," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 123-165, April.
    14. Kozarski, R., 2013. "Pricing and hedging in the VIX derivative market," Other publications TiSEM 221fefe0-241e-4914-b6bd-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    15. Duffie, Darrell, 2005. "Credit risk modeling with affine processes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 2751-2802, November.
    16. Suresh M. Sundaresan, 2000. "Continuous‐Time Methods in Finance: A Review and an Assessment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1569-1622, August.
    17. Robert Azencott & Yutheeka Gadhyan & Roland Glowinski, 2014. "Option Pricing Accuracy for Estimated Heston Models," Papers 1404.4014, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2015.
    18. Carl Chiarella & Christina Nikitopoulos-Sklibosios & Erik Schlogl, 2005. "A Control Variate Method for Monte Carlo Simulations of Heath-Jarrow-Morton with Jumps," Research Paper Series 167, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    19. Zhu, Song-Ping & Lian, Guang-Hua, 2015. "Pricing forward-start variance swaps with stochastic volatility," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 920-933.
    20. Oleksandr Zhylyevskyy, 2010. "A fast Fourier transform technique for pricing American options under stochastic volatility," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 1-24, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Basel Committee on Banking Supervision; Value-at-Risk; Expected shortfall; Expectile based risk measure; Correction coefficients;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C46 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Specific Distributions
    • C65 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Miscellaneous Mathematical Tools
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:87:y:2023:i:c:s1057521923001618. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620166 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.