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A prediction of the exergy loss of the world's mineral reserves in the 21st century

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  • Valero, Al.
  • Valero, A.

Abstract

This paper makes an assessment of the exergy loss of the main minerals produced in the world throughout the 21st century, namely coal, oil, natural gas, iron, aluminium and copper. The reason for using the exergy analysis as an assessment tool is because it takes into account the main physical features that make a natural resource valuable: concentration, composition and quantity. Furthermore, using the same unit of measurement (energy) means all minerals considered can be compared and added. The future depletion degree of mineral reserves has been predicted with the help of five different scenarios. The first scenario assumes that production of all commodities will follow the well-known Hubbert's bell-shaped curve. The other four models are based on the (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) for fossil fuel consumption and the Hubbert peak model for non-fuel minerals. The results of this study indicate that there might not be enough available resources to satisfy the predicted future mineral demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Valero, Al. & Valero, A., 2011. "A prediction of the exergy loss of the world's mineral reserves in the 21st century," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1848-1854.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:36:y:2011:i:4:p:1848-1854
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2010.02.041
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Valero, Alicia & Valero, Antonio & Martínez, Amaya, 2010. "Inventory of the exergy resources on earth including its mineral capital," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 989-995.
    2. Craig Bond Hatfield, 1997. "Oil back on the global agenda," Nature, Nature, vol. 387(6629), pages 121-121, May.
    3. Valero, Alicia & Valero, Antonio & Arauzo, Inmaculada, 2008. "Evolution of the decrease in mineral exergy throughout the 20th century. The case of copper in the US," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 107-115.
    4. Valero, Antonio & Valero, Alicia, 2010. "Exergoecology: A thermodynamic approach for accounting the Earth's mineral capital. The case of bauxite–aluminium and limestone–lime chains," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 229-238.
    5. Ken Gregory & Hans-Holger Rogner, 1998. "Energy Resources and Conversion Technologies for the 21st Century," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 171-230, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. An, Qier & An, Haizhong & Wang, Lang & Huang, Xuan, 2014. "Structural and regional variations of natural resource production in China based on exergy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 67-77.
    2. Leena Grandell & Mikael Höök, 2015. "Assessing Rare Metal Availability Challenges for Solar Energy Technologies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(9), pages 1-20, August.
    3. Valero, Antonio & Agudelo, Andrés & Valero, Alicia, 2011. "The crepuscular planet. A model for the exhausted atmosphere and hydrosphere," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 3745-3753.
    4. Harmsen, J.H.M. & Roes, A.L. & Patel, M.K., 2013. "The impact of copper scarcity on the efficiency of 2050 global renewable energy scenarios," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 62-73.
    5. Kai Whiting & Luis Gabriel Carmona & Angeles Carrasco & Tânia Sousa, 2017. "Exergy Replacement Cost of Fossil Fuels: Closing the Carbon Cycle," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-21, July.
    6. Höök, Mikael & Tang, Xu, 2013. "Depletion of fossil fuels and anthropogenic climate change—A review," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 797-809.
    7. Najdenov, Ivan & Raić, Karlo T. & Kokeza, Gordana, 2012. "Aspects of energy reduction by autogenous copper production in the copper smelting plant Bor," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 376-384.
    8. Guiomar Calvo & Gavin Mudd & Alicia Valero & Antonio Valero, 2016. "Decreasing Ore Grades in Global Metallic Mining: A Theoretical Issue or a Global Reality?," Resources, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-14, November.
    9. Valero, Alicia & Domínguez, Adriana & Valero, Antonio, 2015. "Exergy cost allocation of by-products in the mining and metallurgical industry," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 128-142.
    10. Domínguez, Adriana & Czarnowska, Lucyna & Valero, Alicia & Stanek, Wojciech & Valero, Antonio, 2014. "Thermo-ecological and exergy replacement costs of nickel processing," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 103-114.
    11. Valero, Alicia & Valero, Antonio & Calvo, Guiomar & Ortego, Abel & Ascaso, Sonia & Palacios, Jose-Luis, 2018. "Global material requirements for the energy transition. An exergy flow analysis of decarbonisation pathways," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 1175-1184.

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