IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v261y2022ipas0360544222020631.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A novel probabilistic power curve model to predict the power production and its uncertainty for a wind farm over complex terrain

Author

Listed:
  • Qian, Guo-Wei
  • Ishihara, Takeshi

Abstract

This study proposes a novel probabilistic power curve model for wind turbine and combines it with a hybrid wind farm model to quantify the accuracy and uncertainty of power prediction of wind farm over complex terrain with low computational cost. The proposed probabilistic power curve model for an active stall-regulated turbine is expressed by the beta distribution to estimate the uncertainty of power output at a certain wind speed. The predicted mean value and standard deviation of power output by the proposed model show favorable agreement with the measurement, while the conventional deterministic model cannot estimate the uncertainty of power output from wind turbines at all. The hybrid wind farm flow model is then presented, in which the effects of local terrain and surface roughness on the wind speed, wind direction and turbulence intensity are taken into account by the CFD simulation, and the wind turbine wakes are represented by an advanced wake model. The predicted wind speed and turbulence intensity show good agreement with those measured in a wind farm over complex terrain in the north of Japan. Finally, the proposed probabilistic power curve model is combined with the hybrid farm flow model to estimate the mean value and standard deviation of wind farm power production and is validated by the field measurement. The weighted mean absolute percentage error in mean value is reduced from 18.1% to 7.2% with consideration of wake effects and that in standard deviation is reduced from 100% to 15.6% by using the proposed probabilistic power curve model.

Suggested Citation

  • Qian, Guo-Wei & Ishihara, Takeshi, 2022. "A novel probabilistic power curve model to predict the power production and its uncertainty for a wind farm over complex terrain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(PA).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:261:y:2022:i:pa:s0360544222020631
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2022.125171
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544222020631
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2022.125171?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guo-Wei Qian & Takeshi Ishihara, 2018. "A New Analytical Wake Model for Yawed Wind Turbines," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-24, March.
    2. Pelletier, Francis & Masson, Christian & Tahan, Antoine, 2016. "Wind turbine power curve modelling using artificial neural network," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 207-214.
    3. Xu, Keyi & Yan, Jie & Zhang, Hao & Zhang, Haoran & Han, Shuang & Liu, Yongqian, 2021. "Quantile based probabilistic wind turbine power curve model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 296(C).
    4. Yun, Eunjeong & Hur, Jin, 2021. "Probabilistic estimation model of power curve to enhance power output forecasting of wind generating resources," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    5. Kwon, Soon-Duck, 2010. "Uncertainty analysis of wind energy potential assessment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 856-865, March.
    6. Kusiak, Andrew & Zheng, Haiyang & Song, Zhe, 2009. "On-line monitoring of power curves," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1487-1493.
    7. Wang, Huaizhi & Xue, Wenli & Liu, Yitao & Peng, Jianchun & Jiang, Hui, 2020. "Probabilistic wind power forecasting based on spiking neural network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    8. Yan, Jie & Zhang, Hao & Liu, Yongqian & Han, Shuang & Li, Li, 2019. "Uncertainty estimation for wind energy conversion by probabilistic wind turbine power curve modelling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 1356-1370.
    9. Karamichailidou, Despina & Kaloutsa, Vasiliki & Alexandridis, Alex, 2021. "Wind turbine power curve modeling using radial basis function neural networks and tabu search," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 2137-2152.
    10. Diaf, S. & Diaf, D. & Belhamel, M. & Haddadi, M. & Louche, A., 2007. "A methodology for optimal sizing of autonomous hybrid PV/wind system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5708-5718, November.
    11. Qian, Guo-Wei & Ishihara, Takeshi, 2021. "Wind farm power maximization through wake steering with a new multiple wake model for prediction of turbulence intensity," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Francisco Bilendo & Angela Meyer & Hamed Badihi & Ningyun Lu & Philippe Cambron & Bin Jiang, 2022. "Applications and Modeling Techniques of Wind Turbine Power Curve for Wind Farms—A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-38, December.
    2. Wang, Peng & Li, Yanting & Zhang, Guangyao, 2023. "Probabilistic power curve estimation based on meteorological factors and density LSTM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    3. Han, Shuang & Qiao, Yanhui & Yan, Ping & Yan, Jie & Liu, Yongqian & Li, Li, 2020. "Wind turbine power curve modeling based on interval extreme probability density for the integration of renewable energies and electric vehicles," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 190-203.
    4. Zou, Runmin & Yang, Jiaxin & Wang, Yun & Liu, Fang & Essaaidi, Mohamed & Srinivasan, Dipti, 2021. "Wind turbine power curve modeling using an asymmetric error characteristic-based loss function and a hybrid intelligent optimizer," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    5. Pengfei Zhang & Zuoxia Xing & Shanshan Guo & Mingyang Chen & Qingqi Zhao, 2022. "A New Wind Turbine Power Performance Assessment Approach: SCADA to Power Model Based with Regression-Kriging," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-15, July.
    6. Xu, Keyi & Yan, Jie & Zhang, Hao & Zhang, Haoran & Han, Shuang & Liu, Yongqian, 2021. "Quantile based probabilistic wind turbine power curve model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 296(C).
    7. Gonzalez, Elena & Stephen, Bruce & Infield, David & Melero, Julio J., 2019. "Using high-frequency SCADA data for wind turbine performance monitoring: A sensitivity study," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 841-853.
    8. Miguel Á. Rodríguez-López & Emilio Cerdá & Pablo del Rio, 2020. "Modeling Wind-Turbine Power Curves: Effects of Environmental Temperature on Wind Energy Generation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-21, September.
    9. Hu, Yang & Xi, Yunhua & Pan, Chenyang & Li, Gengda & Chen, Baowei, 2020. "Daily condition monitoring of grid-connected wind turbine via high-fidelity power curve and its comprehensive rating," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 2095-2111.
    10. Athanasios Zisos & Georgia-Konstantina Sakki & Andreas Efstratiadis, 2023. "Mixing Renewable Energy with Pumped Hydropower Storage: Design Optimization under Uncertainty and Other Challenges," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-21, September.
    11. Rogers, T.J. & Gardner, P. & Dervilis, N. & Worden, K. & Maguire, A.E. & Papatheou, E. & Cross, E.J., 2020. "Probabilistic modelling of wind turbine power curves with application of heteroscedastic Gaussian Process regression," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 1124-1136.
    12. Marino Marrocu & Luca Massidda, 2017. "A Simple and Effective Approach for the Prediction of Turbine Power Production From Wind Speed Forecast," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-14, November.
    13. Usama Aziz & Sylvie Charbonnier & Christophe Berenguer & Alexis Lebranchu & Frederic Prevost, 2022. "A Multi-Turbine Approach for Improving Performance of Wind Turbine Power-Based Fault Detection Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-21, April.
    14. Li, Tenghui & Liu, Xiaolei & Lin, Zi & Morrison, Rory, 2022. "Ensemble offshore Wind Turbine Power Curve modelling – An integration of Isolation Forest, fast Radial Basis Function Neural Network, and metaheuristic algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PD).
    15. Zhiwen Deng & Chang Xu & Zhihong Huo & Xingxing Han & Feifei Xue, 2023. "Yaw Optimisation for Wind Farm Production Maximisation Based on a Dynamic Wake Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-20, May.
    16. Mehrjoo, Mehrdad & Jafari Jozani, Mohammad & Pawlak, Miroslaw, 2020. "Wind turbine power curve modeling for reliable power prediction using monotonic regression," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(P1), pages 214-222.
    17. Yan, Jie & Zhang, Hao & Liu, Yongqian & Han, Shuang & Li, Li, 2019. "Uncertainty estimation for wind energy conversion by probabilistic wind turbine power curve modelling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 1356-1370.
    18. Yan, Jie & Möhrlen, Corinna & Göçmen, Tuhfe & Kelly, Mark & Wessel, Arne & Giebel, Gregor, 2022. "Uncovering wind power forecasting uncertainty sources and their propagation through the whole modelling chain," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    19. Shibuya, Koichiro & Uchida, Takanori, 2023. "Wake asymmetry of yaw state wind turbines induced by interference with wind towers," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    20. Davide Astolfi & Francesco Castellani & Andrea Lombardi & Ludovico Terzi, 2021. "Multivariate SCADA Data Analysis Methods for Real-World Wind Turbine Power Curve Monitoring," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-18, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:261:y:2022:i:pa:s0360544222020631. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.