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Emerging economic viability of grid defection in a northern climate using solar hybrid systems

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  • Kantamneni, Abhilash
  • Winkler, Richelle
  • Gauchia, Lucia
  • Pearce, Joshua M.

Abstract

High demand for photovoltaic (PV), battery, and small-scale combined heat and power (CHP) technologies are driving a virtuous cycle of technological improvements and cost reductions in off-grid electric systems that increasingly compete with the grid market. Using a case study in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, this paper quantifies the economic viability of off-grid PV+battery+CHP adoption and evaluates potential implications for grid-based utility models. The analysis shows that already some households could save money by switching to a solar hybrid off-grid system in comparison to the effective electric rates they are currently paying. Across the region by 2020, 92% of seasonal households and ~75% of year-round households are projected to meet electricity demands with lower costs. Furthermore, ~65% of all Upper Peninsula single-family owner-occupied households will both meet grid parity and be able to afford the systems by 2020. The results imply that economic circumstances could spur a positive feedback loop whereby grid electricity prices continue to rise and increasing numbers of customers choose alternatives (sometimes referred to as a “utility death spiral”), particularly in areas with relatively high electric utility rates. Utility companies and policy makers must take the potential for grid defection seriously when evaluating energy supply strategies.

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  • Kantamneni, Abhilash & Winkler, Richelle & Gauchia, Lucia & Pearce, Joshua M., 2016. "Emerging economic viability of grid defection in a northern climate using solar hybrid systems," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 378-389.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:95:y:2016:i:c:p:378-389
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2016.05.013
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    Cited by:

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    4. Emily Prehoda & Joshua M. Pearce & Chelsea Schelly, 2019. "Policies to Overcome Barriers for Renewable Energy Distributed Generation: A Case Study of Utility Structure and Regulatory Regimes in Michigan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-23, February.
    5. Botelho, D.F. & de Oliveira, L.W. & Dias, B.H. & Soares, T.A. & Moraes, C.A., 2022. "Prosumer integration into the Brazilian energy sector: An overview of innovative business models and regulatory challenges," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    6. Gorman, Will & Jarvis, Stephen & Callaway, Duncan, 2020. "Should I Stay Or Should I Go? The importance of electricity rate design for household defection from the power grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    7. Mussard, Maxime, 2017. "Solar energy under cold climatic conditions: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 733-745.
    8. Joshua M. Pearce & Nelson Sommerfeldt, 2021. "Economics of Grid-Tied Solar Photovoltaic Systems Coupled to Heat Pumps: The Case of Northern Climates of the U.S. and Canada," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-17, February.
    9. Daniel Then & Patrick Hein & Tanja M. Kneiske & Martin Braun, 2020. "Analysis of Dependencies between Gas and Electricity Distribution Grid Planning and Building Energy Retrofit Decisions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-42, July.
    10. Inês, Campos & Guilherme, Pontes Luz & Esther, Marín-González & Swantje, Gährs & Stephen, Hall & Lars, Holstenkamp, 2020. "Regulatory challenges and opportunities for collective renewable energy prosumers in the EU," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    11. Marczinkowski, Hannah Mareike & Østergaard, Poul Alberg, 2018. "Residential versus communal combination of photovoltaic and battery in smart energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 466-475.
    12. Sommerfeldt, Nelson & Pearce, Joshua M., 2023. "Can grid-tied solar photovoltaics lead to residential heating electrification? A techno-economic case study in the midwestern U.S," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 336(C).
    13. Mariusz Niekurzak & Wojciech Lewicki & Wojciech Drożdż & Paweł Miązek, 2022. "Measures for Assessing the Effectiveness of Investments for Electricity and Heat Generation from the Hybrid Cooperation of a Photovoltaic Installation with a Heat Pump on the Example of a Household," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-20, August.
    14. Peffley, Trevor B. & Pearce, Joshua M., 2020. "The potential for grid defection of small and medium sized enterprises using solar photovoltaic, battery and generator hybrid systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 193-204.
    15. Yang, Fei-fei & Zhao, Xin-gang, 2018. "Policies and economic efficiency of China's distributed photovoltaic and energy storage industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 221-230.

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