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Green certificate markets, the risk of over-investment, and the role of long-term contracts

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  • Kildegaard, Arne
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    Abstract

    Several papers have recently analyzed the theory and implementation of renewable energy support schemes. The case for a renewable electricity standard (RES) in tandem with a tradeable green certificate (TGC) market has been largely based on efficiency considerations. Case study evidence is inconclusive, in part due to the short track record, but is not generally favorable. Here we reconsider the efficiency case, both static and dynamic, in light of special characteristics of renewable energy projects. We find that when exclusively high fixed-cost technologies comprise the eligible technology pool, the equilibrium form of contracting obviates the principal efficiency advantages claimed for certificate markets. When low fixed-cost technologies compete alongside high fixed-cost technologies in the certificate market, we show that it is likely that long-term contracts will disappear, and the technological choice will be inefficiently shifted away from the high fixed-cost technology. We consider evidence from three well-developed certificate schemes--in Britain, Sweden, and Texas--and find that it is broadly consistent with the theory here.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

    Volume (Year): 36 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 9 (September)
    Pages: 3413-3421

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:36:y:2008:i:9:p:3413-3421

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

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    1. Mitchell, C. & Bauknecht, D. & Connor, P.M., 2006. "Effectiveness through risk reduction: a comparison of the renewable obligation in England and Wales and the feed-in system in Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 297-305, February.
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    3. Lemming, Jacob, 2003. "Financial risks for green electricity investors and producers in a tradable green certificate market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 21-32, January.
    4. Lipp, Judith, 2007. "Lessons for effective renewable electricity policy from Denmark, Germany and the United Kingdom," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5481-5495, November.
    5. Agnolucci, Paolo, 2007. "The effect of financial constraints, technological progress and long-term contracts on tradable green certificates," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 3347-3359, June.
    6. Agnolucci, Paolo, 2007. "The importance and the policy impacts of post-contractual opportunism and competition in the English and Welsh non-fossil fuel obligation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 475-486, January.
    7. Verbruggen, Aviel, 2004. "Tradable green certificates in Flanders (Belgium)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 165-176, January.
    8. Fristrup, Peter, 2003. "Some challenges related to introducing tradable green certificates," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 15-19, January.
    9. Lauber, Volkmar, 2004. "REFIT and RPS: options for a harmonised Community framework," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 1405-1414, August.
    10. Wiser, Ryan H. & Pickle, Steven J., 1998. "Financing investments in renewable energy : the impacts of policy design," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 361-386, December.
    11. Menanteau, Philippe & Finon, Dominique & Lamy, Marie-Laure, 2003. "Prices versus quantities: choosing policies for promoting the development of renewable energy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 799-812, June.
    12. Langniss, Ole & Wiser, Ryan, 2003. "The renewables portfolio standard in Texas: an early assessment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 527-535, May.
    13. Morthorst, P. E., 2000. "The development of a green certificate market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(15), pages 1085-1094, December.
    14. Morthorst, P. E., 2003. "A green certificate market combined with a liberalised power market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(13), pages 1393-1402, October.
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    Cited by:
    1. Klitkou, Antje & Godoe, Helge, 2013. "The Norwegian PV manufacturing industry in a Triple Helix perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1586-1594.
    2. Wiser, Ryan & Barbose, Galen & Holt, Edward, 2011. "Supporting solar power in renewables portfolio standards: Experience from the United States," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 3894-3905, July.
    3. Fagiani, Riccardo & Hakvoort, Rudi, 2014. "The role of regulatory uncertainty in certificate markets: A case study of the Swedish/Norwegian market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 608-618.
    4. Nagl, Stephan, 2013. "Prices vs. Quantities: Incentives for Renewable Power Generation - Numerical Analysis for the European Power Market," EWI Working Papers 2013-4, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln.
    5. Verbruggen, Aviel & Lauber, Volkmar, 2009. "Basic concepts for designing renewable electricity support aiming at a full-scale transition by 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5732-5743, December.
    6. Paul Koutstaal & Michiel Bijlsma & Gijsbert Zwart & X. van Tilburg, 2009. "Market performance and distributional effects on renewable energy markets," CPB Document 190, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    7. Xin-gang, Zhao & Tian-tian, Feng & Lu, Cui & Xia, Feng, 2014. "The barriers and institutional arrangements of the implementation of renewable portfolio standard: A perspective of China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 371-380.
    8. Nagl, Stephan, 2013. "The Effect of Weather Uncertainty on the Financial Risk of Green Electricity Producers under Various Renewable Policies," EWI Working Papers 2013-15, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln.
    9. Maria Kopsakangas-Savolainen & Rauli Svento, 2013. "Promotion of Market Access for Renewable Energy in the Nordic Power Markets," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 54(4), pages 549-569, April.
    10. Paul Lehmann & Felix Creutzig & Melf-Hinrich Ehlers & Nele Friedrichsen & Clemens Heuson & Lion Hirth & Robert Pietzcker, 2012. "Carbon Lock-Out: Advancing Renewable Energy Policy in Europe," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(2), pages 323-354, February.
    11. Christoph Heinzel & Thomas Winkler, 2011. "Economic functioning and politically pragmatic justification of tradable green certificates in Poland," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 13(2), pages 157-175, June.
    12. Buckman, Greg, 2011. "The effectiveness of Renewable Portfolio Standard banding and carve-outs in supporting high-cost types of renewable electricity," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 4105-4114, July.

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