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Pricing emerging market stock returns: An update

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  • Barclay, Richard
  • Fletcher, Jonathan
  • Marshall, Andrew
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    Abstract

    This paper tests how effective global models are at pricing the cross section of emerging market (EM) stock returns over a recent post-liberalization period. We apply the tests of Kan et al. (2009). Our results show that conditional models and currency factors do perform better than unconditional models and single factor models and there are some differences in the models in the two subperiods of our data. The important implication of this paper for international investors is none of our results are significant when we allow for model misspecification and none of the alternative models specifically outperform the World CAPM.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Emerging Markets Review.

    Volume (Year): 11 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 1 (March)
    Pages: 49-61

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:11:y:2010:i:1:p:49-61

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620356

    Related research

    Keywords: Emerging markets Asset pricing models;

    References

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    1. Hodrick, Robert J. & Zhang, Xiaoyan, 2001. "Evaluating the specification errors of asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 327-376, November.
    2. Kenneth D. West & Whitney K. Newey, 1995. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0144, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Carrieri, Francesca & Errunza, Vihang & Majerbi, Basma, 2006. "Local risk factors in emerging markets: Are they separately priced?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 444-461, October.
    4. Vuong, Quang H, 1989. "Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 307-33, March.
    5. Lars Peter Hansen & Ravi Jagannathan, 1994. "Assessing Specification Errors in Stochastic Discount Factor Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 2003. "Emerging markets finance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 3-56, February.
    7. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    8. Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1999. "Conditioning Variables and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1325-1360, 08.
    9. Raymond Kan & Cesare Robotti & Jay Shanken, 2013. "Pricing Model Performance and the Two-Pass Cross-Sectional Regression Methodology," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(6), pages 2617-2649, December.
    10. Campbell R. Harvey, 1994. "Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 4621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 2002. "Research in emerging markets finance: looking to the future," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 429-448, December.
    12. Zhang, Xiaoyan, 2006. "Specification tests of international asset pricing models," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 275-307, March.
    13. Carrieri, Francesca & Errunza, Vihang & Majerbi, Basma, 2006. "Does Emerging Market Exchange Risk Affect Global Equity Prices?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(03), pages 511-540, September.
    14. Dumas, Bernard & Solnik, Bruno, 1995. " The World Price of Foreign Exchange Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 445-79, June.
    15. Chaieb, Ines & Errunza, Vihang, 2007. "International asset pricing under segmentation and PPP deviations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 543-578, November.
    16. Raymond Kan & Cesare Robotti, 2007. "Model comparison using the Hansen-Jagannathan distance," Working Paper 2007-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    17. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-36, May-June.
    18. Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. " The World Price of Covariance Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 111-57, March.
    19. Shanken, Jay, 1992. "On the Estimation of Beta-Pricing Models," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 1-33.
    20. Shanken, Jay, 1985. "Multivariate tests of the zero-beta CAPM," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 327-348, September.
    21. Carrieri, Francesca & Errunza, Vihang & Hogan, Ked, 2007. "Characterizing World Market Integration through Time," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(04), pages 915-940, December.
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    Cited by:
    1. Yury Dranev & Sofya Fomkina, 2013. "An asymmetric approach to the cost of equity estimation: empirical evidence from Russia," HSE Working papers WP BRP 12/FE/2013, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    2. Guyot, Alexis & Lagoarde-Segot, Thomas & Neaime, Simon, 2014. "Foreign shocks and international cost of equity destabilization. Evidence from the MENA region," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 101-122.
    3. Grandes, Martin & Panigo, Demian T. & Pasquini, Ricardo A., 2010. "On the estimation of the cost of equity in Latin America," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 373-389, December.
    4. Mohanty, Sunil & Nandha, Mohan & Bota, Gabor, 2010. "Oil shocks and stock returns: The case of the Central and Eastern European (CEE) oil and gas sectors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 358-372, December.

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