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Decision support models in climate policy

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  • Doukas, Haris
  • Nikas, Alexandros

Abstract

Climate change is considered among the most critical risks that global society faces in this century. So far, climate policy strategies have been evaluated by means of a variety of climate-economy models, or Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), in the aim of supporting climate-related decision making. However, their inherent complexity, the number and nature of driving assumptions, and usual exclusion of stakeholders from the modelling process raise the issue of the extent to which they can provide fruitful insights for policy makers. Moreover, as with all modelling frameworks, IAMs inevitably fail to incorporate all relevant types of uncertainty and risk when used as stand-alone tools. This exclusion can have a significant impact on the model outcomes, but can be mitigated if experts’ knowledge is elicited in a structured manner and effectively taken into account, towards identifying such factors or reducing respective knowledge gaps. At the same time, a growing number of research publications have been suggesting decision support frameworks for assessing specific aspects in climate policy, based on “bottom-up” approaches and participatory processes. The objective of this paper is to provide a critical review of such frameworks—namely Portfolio Analysis, Multiple Criteria Decision Making and Fuzzy Cognitive Maps—in order to explore their strengths and weaknesses in this area, and propose a new integrative approach, appropriately exploiting blends of these frameworks, to productively complement IAMs, towards enhancing climate policy support.

Suggested Citation

  • Doukas, Haris & Nikas, Alexandros, 2020. "Decision support models in climate policy," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 280(1), pages 1-24.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:280:y:2020:i:1:p:1-24
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2019.01.017
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Vangelis Marinakis, 2020. "Big Data for Energy Management and Energy-Efficient Buildings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-18, March.
    2. Vangelis Marinakis & Themistoklis Koutsellis & Alexandros Nikas & Haris Doukas, 2021. "AI and Data Democratisation for Intelligent Energy Management," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-14, July.
    3. Vladimír Baláž & Dušana Dokupilová & Richard Filčák, 2021. "Participatory multi-criteria methods for adaptation to climate change," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 1-22, April.
    4. Themistoklis Koutsellis & Georgios Xexakis & Konstantinos Koasidis & Alexandros Nikas & Haris Doukas, 2022. "Parameter analysis for sigmoid and hyperbolic transfer functions of fuzzy cognitive maps," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 22(5), pages 5733-5763, November.
    5. Nikas, A. & Koasidis, K. & Köberle, A.C. & Kourtesi, G. & Doukas, H., 2022. "A comparative study of biodiesel in Brazil and Argentina: An integrated systems of innovation perspective," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    6. Ferreira, Fernando A.F. & Spahr, Ronald W. & Sunderman, Mark A. & Govindan, Kannan & Meidutė-Kavaliauskienė, Ieva, 2022. "Urban blight remediation strategies subject to seasonal constraints," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 296(1), pages 277-288.
    7. Liu, Yang & Zhang, Congrui & Xu, Xiaochuan & Ge, Yongxiang & Ren, Gaofeng, 2022. "Assessment of energy conservation potential and cost in open-pit metal mines: Bottom-up approach integrated energy conservation supply curve and ultimate pit limit," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    8. Dolinska, Aleksandra & Hassenforder, Emeline & Loboguerrero, Ana Maria & Sultan, Benjamin & Bossuet, Jérôme & Cottenceau, Jeanne & Bonatti, Michelle & Hellin, Jon & Mekki, Insaf & Drogoul, Alexis & Va, 2023. "Co-production opportunities seized and missed in decision-support frameworks for climate-change adaptation in agriculture – How do we practice the “best practice”?," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    9. Nikas, A. & Gambhir, A. & Trutnevyte, E. & Koasidis, K. & Lund, H. & Thellufsen, J.Z. & Mayer, D. & Zachmann, G. & Miguel, L.J. & Ferreras-Alonso, N. & Sognnaes, I. & Peters, G.P. & Colombo, E. & Howe, 2021. "Perspective of comprehensive and comprehensible multi-model energy and climate science in Europe," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(PA).
    10. Konstantinos Koasidis & Alexandros Nikas & Hera Neofytou & Anastasios Karamaneas & Ajay Gambhir & Jakob Wachsmuth & Haris Doukas, 2020. "The UK and German Low-Carbon Industry Transitions from a Sectoral Innovation and System Failures Perspective," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-34, September.
    11. Konstantinos Papageorgiou & Pramod K Singh & Elpiniki I Papageorgiou & Harpalsinh Chudasama & Dionysios Bochtis & George Stamoulis, 2020. "Participatory modelling for poverty alleviation using fuzzy cognitive maps and OWA learning aggregation," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(6), pages 1-28, June.
    12. Prina, Matteo Giacomo & Manzolini, Giampaolo & Moser, David & Nastasi, Benedetto & Sparber, Wolfram, 2020. "Classification and challenges of bottom-up energy system models - A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    13. Athanasios Tsadiras & Maria Pempetzoglou & Iosif Viktoratos, 2021. "Making Predictions of Global Warming Impacts Using a Semantic Web Tool that Simulates Fuzzy Cognitive Maps," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 58(3), pages 715-745, October.
    14. Zhang, Shuo & Yu, Yadong & Kharrazi, Ali & Ren, Hongtao & Ma, Tieju, 2022. "How can structural change contribute to concurrent sustainability policy targets on GDP, emissions, energy, and employment in China?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    15. Alexandros Nikas & Angelos Fountoulakis & Aikaterini Forouli & Haris Doukas, 2022. "A robust augmented ε-constraint method (AUGMECON-R) for finding exact solutions of multi-objective linear programming problems," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 1291-1332, April.
    16. Zhengyu Ren & Hsing Hung Chen & Kunseng Lao & Hongyi Zhang, 2022. "A Decision Support System to Estimate Green Sustainability from Environmental Protection and Debt Financing Indicators," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-13, August.
    17. Diamantis Koutsandreas & Evangelos Spiliotis & Haris Doukas & John Psarras, 2021. "What Is the Macroeconomic Impact of Higher Decarbonization Speeds? The Case of Greece," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-19, April.
    18. Lambros T. Doulos & Aris Tsangrassoulis & Evangelos-Nikolaos Madias & Spyros Niavis & Antonios Kontadakis & Panagiotis A. Kontaxis & Vassiliki T. Kontargyri & Katerina Skalkou & Frangiskos Topalis & E, 2020. "Examining the Impact of Daylighting and the Corresponding Lighting Controls to the Users of Office Buildings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-25, August.
    19. Apostolos Arsenopoulos & Vangelis Marinakis & Konstantinos Koasidis & Andriana Stavrakaki & John Psarras, 2020. "Assessing Resilience to Energy Poverty in Europe through a Multi-Criteria Analysis Framework," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-22, June.
    20. Aikaterini Papapostolou & Charikleia Karakosta & Georgios Apostolidis & Haris Doukas, 2020. "An AHP-SWOT-Fuzzy TOPSIS Approach for Achieving a Cross-Border RES Cooperation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-28, April.
    21. Xidonas, Panos & Doukas, Haris & Hassapis, Christis, 2021. "Grouped data, investment committees & multicriteria portfolio selection," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 205-222.
    22. Evangelos-Nikolaos D. Madias & Lambros T. Doulos & Panagiotis A. Kontaxis & Frangiskos V. Topalis, 2022. "Multicriteria decision aid analysis for the optimum performance of an ambient light sensor: methodology and case study," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 1333-1361, April.
    23. Gardian, H. & Beck, J.-P. & Koch, M. & Kunze, R. & Muschner, C. & Hülk, L. & Bucksteeg, M., 2022. "Data harmonisation for energy system analysis – Example of multi-model experiments," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    24. Koutsellis, Themistoklis & Nikas, Alexandros, 2020. "A predictive model and country risk assessment for COVID-19: An application of the Limited Failure Population concept," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).

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