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Dynamic models of religious conformity and conversion: Theory and calibrations

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  • Shy, Oz
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Abstract

This paper develops behavioral and deterministic overlapping generations models to explain and simulate changes in the proportion of secular and religious people. Under the behavioral approach, the role of the church is to generate an externality associated with the investment in enhancing the conformity rate among young believers. Under the deterministic approach, changes in the number of nonbelievers are explained by different birth rates among secular and religious parents as well as the relative proportion of nonconformists among the young in each group. This model is then used to calibrate for (non)conformity rates among secular and religious people. ZUSAMMENFASSUNG - (Dynamische Modelle religiöser Konformität und Konversion: Theorie und Simulationen) Diese Arbeit entwickelt deterministische und Verhaltensmodelle mit überlappenden Generationen, welche die Veränderungen des Zahlenverhältnisses von nicht religiösen zu religiösen Menschen erklären und simulieren. Im Verhaltensansatz wird aufgezeigt, dass der Kirche die Aufgabe zukommt, einen externen Effekt zu erzeugen, der dafür sorgt, dass junge Gläubige mit der Glaubenseinstellung ihrer Eltern konform gehen. Der deterministische Ansatz erklärt die Veränderungen in der Anzahl Nichtgläubiger einerseits mit den unterschiedlichen Geburtenraten unter nichtgläubigen Eltern im Vergleich zu religiösen Eltern und andererseits durch den relativen Anteil von Nichtkonformen unter der jungen Generation in jeder Gruppe. Dieses Modell wird verwandt, um (Nicht-)Konformitätsraten--nach denen junge Menschen ihren Eltern im Glauben folgen oder nicht--innerhalb der Gruppen weltlicher sowie religiöser Menschen zu berechnen.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal European Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 51 (2007)
Issue (Month): 5 (July)
Pages: 1127-1153

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Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:51:y:2007:i:5:p:1127-1153

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  1. Bagwell, Laurie Simon & Bernheim, B Douglas, 1996. "Veblen Effects in a Theory of Conspicuous Consumption," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 349-73, June.
  2. William Mosher & Linda Williams & David Johnson, 1992. "Religion and fertility in the United States: New patterns," Demography, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 199-214, May.
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  4. Yoram Weiss & Chaim Fershtman, 1997. "Social Status and Economic Performance: A Survey," University of Chicago - George G. Stigler Center for Study of Economy and State 139, Chicago - Center for Study of Economy and State.
  5. GRILO, Isabel & SHY, Oz & THISSE, Jacques-François, 1997. "Price competition when consumer behavior is characterized by conformity or vanity," CORE Discussion Papers 1997032, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
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  7. Evelyn Lehrer, 1996. "Religion as a determinant of marital fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 173-196, June.
  8. Iannaccone, Laurence R, 1992. "Sacrifice and Stigma: Reducing Free-Riding in Cults, Communes, and Other Collectives," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 271-91, April.
  9. Stark, Rodney & Iannaccone, Laurence R & Finke, Roger, 1996. "Religion, Science, and Rationality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 433-37, May.
  10. Robert J. Barro & Rachel M. Mccleary, 2005. "Which Countries Have State Religions?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 120(4), pages 1331-1370, November.
  11. Pedro Pita Barros & Nuno Garoupa, 2002. "An Economic Theory Of Church Strictness," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(481), pages 559-576, July.
  12. Shy,Oz, 2001. "The Economics of Network Industries," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521800952, December.
  13. Alberto Bisin & Giorgio Topa & Thierry Verdier, 2004. "Religious Intermarriage and Socialization in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(3), pages 615-664, June.
  14. Lehrer, Evelyn L., 2004. "Religion as a Determinant of Economic and Demographic Behavior in the United States," IZA Discussion Papers 1390, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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Cited by:
  1. Oz Shy, 2011. "A Short Survey of Network Economics," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 119-149, March.
  2. Bar-El, Ronen & García Muñoz, Teresa & Neuman, Shoshana & Tobol, Yossi, 2010. "The Evolution of Secularization: Cultural Transmission, Religion and Fertility Theory, Simulations and Evidence," IZA Discussion Papers 4980, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  3. Pablo Brañas-Garza & Teresa García-Muñoz & Shoshana Neuman, 2007. "Unravelling Secularization: an International Study," Papers on Economics of Religion 07/05, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..

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