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Long-term evidence of retrospective voting: A natural experiment from the German Democratic Republic

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  • Avdeenko, Alexandra

Abstract

The paper investigates long-lasting electoral punishment. Decades of communist socialization and the repressive rule of a single-party have left their left-wing fingerprint on East Germany. In this paper we show that voters act rationally: given negative life circumstances experienced under the rule of the communist party, they display retrospective voting even decades later. Our insight is based on the analysis of 19 years of revealed and stated party preferences. We argue that life at the Border Region to West Germany was particularly hard and find that East German voters who lived close to the inner-German border before the reunification of the two states are 5.9 percentage points less likely to lean toward the successor party to East Germany’s communists. Given that over the years roughly every fifth person has revealed preferences for the communists in the East, this translates to over thirty percent reduction. We confirm the preferences with administrative data: The electoral punishment estimated at the district-level amounts to a reduction of 1.3 percentage points of votes for the party.

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  • Avdeenko, Alexandra, 2018. "Long-term evidence of retrospective voting: A natural experiment from the German Democratic Republic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 83-107.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:103:y:2018:i:c:p:83-107
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2018.01.006
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    4. Grossmann, Jakub & Jurajda, Štepán & Roesel, Felix, 2021. "Forced Migration, Staying Minorities, and New Societies: Evidence from Post-War Czechoslovakia," IZA Discussion Papers 14191, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Bondar Mariia & Fuchs-Schündeln Nicola, 2023. "Good Bye Lenin Revisited: East-West Preferences Three Decades after German Reunification," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 24(1), pages 97-119, February.
    6. Friehe, Tim & Müller, Helge & Neumeier, Florian, 2020. "Media’s role in the making of a democrat: Evidence from East Germany," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 866-890.
    7. Grant D. Jacobsen, 2019. "How do different sources of policy analysis affect policy preferences? Experimental evidence from the United States," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 52(3), pages 315-342, September.
    8. Björn Kauder & Niklas Potrafke, 2022. "Rewarding conservative politicians? Evidence from voting on same-sex marriage," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 191(1), pages 161-172, April.
    9. Lange, Martin, 2021. "The legacy of state socialism on attitudes toward immigration," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 733-750.

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