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A hump-shaped transitional growth path as a general pattern in long-run development

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  • Gundlach, Erich
  • Paldam, Martin

Abstract

Long-run development is defined as the income transition between the traditional and the modern steady state, in which the speed of the transition is low near the two steady states but high and volatile in between them. This transition implies a hump-shaped relation between the level of per capita income and its growth rate. A hump-shaped growth-income path can be simulated with a two-sector growth model, in which the traditional sector is gradually replaced by the modern sector. Kernel regressions reveal a noisy but robust hump-shaped relation between the growth rate and the level of per capita income in stacked cross-country panel data.

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  • Gundlach, Erich & Paldam, Martin, 2020. "A hump-shaped transitional growth path as a general pattern in long-run development," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(3).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:44:y:2020:i:3:s0939362520301370
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2020.100809
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    Cited by:

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    2. Matteo Cervellati & Gerrit Meyerheim & Uwe Sunde, 2023. "The empirics of economic growth over time and across nations: a unified growth perspective," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 173-224, June.
    3. Jakub Bartak & Agnieszka Jastrzębska, 2022. "Mining patterns of transitional growth using multivariate concept-based models," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 4395-4419, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Long-run development; Transitional growth; Two-sector model; Kernel regressions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other

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