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A comparison of Markov model-based methods for predicting the ecosystem service value of land use in Wuhan, central China

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  • Luo, Dong
  • Zhang, Wenting

Abstract

Aggressive human activity and limited natural resources cause complex land use changes that significantly affect the ecosystem service of land types. In this paper, we used the Markov model to predict future changes in the ecosystem service of each land type. We used remote sensing to evaluate the changes in five land use categories, and previously published value coefficients to calculate the ecosystem service value of each land type. Two methods were applied to acquire useful results. The first was called the A-E method. It involved predicting the future changes of areas in land use using the Markov model and multiplying the value coefficients of the ecosystem service. The second was called the B-E method. It involved calculating the initial ecosystem service value of the land type, and then directly predicting these values. From comparison the actual values in 2011 and the stationarity of the values, we determined that the predicted ecosystem service values of the five land types by the A-E method was better than those by the B-E method. Despite considering the annual changes in the coefficients of ecosystem services, our results can reflect the changes in ecosystem services with land use transformation.

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  • Luo, Dong & Zhang, Wenting, 2014. "A comparison of Markov model-based methods for predicting the ecosystem service value of land use in Wuhan, central China," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 7(C), pages 57-65.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecoser:v:7:y:2014:i:c:p:57-65
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoser.2013.11.001
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    4. Zhang, Yi & Zheng, Minrui & Qin, Bo, 2023. "Optimization of spatial layout based on ESV-FLUS model from the perspective of “Production-Living-Ecological”: A case study of Wuhan City," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 481(C).
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    6. Shoyama, Kikuko & Kamiyama, Chiho & Morimoto, Junko & Ooba, Makoto & Okuro, Toshiya, 2017. "A review of modeling approaches for ecosystem services assessment in the Asian region," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 26(PB), pages 316-328.
    7. Zhang, Guanshi & Zheng, Duo & Xie, Long & Zhang, Xiu & Wu, Hongjuan & Li, Sen, 2021. "Mapping changes in the value of ecosystem services in the Yangtze River Middle Reaches Megalopolis, China," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    8. Hui Li & Yilin Huang & Yilu Zhou & Shuntao Wang & Wanqi Guo & Yan Liu & Junzhi Wang & Qing Xu & Xiaokang Zhou & Kexin Yi & Qingchun Hou & Lixia Liao & Wei Lin, 2023. "Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Ecosystem Service Values and Topography-Driven Effects Based on Land Use Change: A Case Study of the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-19, June.
    9. Jiang, Wei, 2017. "Ecosystem services research in China: A critical review," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 26(PA), pages 10-16.
    10. Wang, Han & Lu, Siying & Lu, Bo & Nie, Xin, 2021. "Overt and covert: The relationship between the transfer of land development rights and carbon emissions," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    11. Ru Chen & Chunbo Huang, 2021. "Landscape Evolution and It’s Impact of Ecosystem Service Value of the Wuhan City, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(24), pages 1-21, December.

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