IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/econom/v178y2014ip3p624-638.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bayesian regression with heteroscedastic error density and parametric mean function

Author

Listed:
  • Pelenis, Justinas

Abstract

In this paper we consider Bayesian estimation of restricted conditional moment models with the linear regression as a particular example. A common practice in the Bayesian literature for linear regression and other semi-parametric models is to use flexible families of distributions for the errors and to assume that the errors are independent from covariates. However, a model with flexible covariate dependent error distributions should be preferred for the following reason. Assuming that the error distribution is independent of predictors might lead to inconsistent estimation of the parameters of interest when errors and covariates are dependent. To address this issue, we develop a Bayesian regression model with a parametric mean function defined by a conditional moment condition and flexible predictor dependent error densities. Sufficient conditions to achieve posterior consistency of the regression parameters and conditional error densities are provided. In experiments, the proposed method compares favorably with classical and alternative Bayesian estimation methods for the estimation of the regression coefficients and conditional densities.

Suggested Citation

  • Pelenis, Justinas, 2014. "Bayesian regression with heteroscedastic error density and parametric mean function," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P3), pages 624-638.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:178:y:2014:i:p3:p:624-638
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2013.10.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304407613002194
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jeconom.2013.10.006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Omiros Papaspiliopoulos & Gareth O. Roberts, 2008. "Retrospective Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for Dirichlet process hierarchical models," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 95(1), pages 169-186.
    2. De Iorio, Maria & Muller, Peter & Rosner, Gary L. & MacEachern, Steven N., 2004. "An ANOVA Model for Dependent Random Measures," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 99, pages 205-215, January.
    3. Robinson, P M, 1987. "Asymptotically Efficient Estimation in the Presence of Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(4), pages 875-891, July.
    4. Keisuke Hirano, 2002. "Semiparametric Bayesian Inference in Autoregressive Panel Data Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(2), pages 781-799, March.
    5. Shen X., 2002. "Asymptotic Normality of Semiparametric and Nonparametric Posterior Distributions," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 222-235, March.
    6. Yeonseung Chung & David Dunson, 2011. "The local Dirichlet process," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 63(1), pages 59-80, February.
    7. John Geweke & Gianni Amisano, 2011. "Hierarchical Markov normal mixture models with applications to financial asset returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1-29, January/F.
    8. Geweke, John & Keane, Michael, 2007. "Smoothly mixing regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 252-290, May.
    9. Conley, Timothy G. & Hansen, Christian B. & McCulloch, Robert E. & Rossi, Peter E., 2008. "A semi-parametric Bayesian approach to the instrumental variable problem," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(1), pages 276-305, May.
    10. White, Halbert, 1982. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, January.
    11. Kottas A. & Gelfand A.E., 2001. "Bayesian Semiparametric Median Regression Modeling," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 1458-1468, December.
    12. Chung, Yeonseung & Dunson, David B., 2009. "Nonparametric Bayes Conditional Distribution Modeling With Variable Selection," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 104(488), pages 1646-1660.
    13. Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward, 2010. "Additive cubic spline regression with Dirichlet process mixture errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(2), pages 322-336, June.
    14. Pati, Debdeep & Dunson, David B. & Tokdar, Surya T., 2013. "Posterior consistency in conditional distribution estimation," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 456-472.
    15. Griffin, J.E. & Steel, M.F.J., 2006. "Order-Based Dependent Dirichlet Processes," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 179-194, March.
    16. Ulrich K. Müller, 2013. "Risk of Bayesian Inference in Misspecified Models, and the Sandwich Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(5), pages 1805-1849, September.
    17. David B. Dunson & Ju-Hyun Park, 2008. "Kernel stick-breaking processes," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 95(2), pages 307-323.
    18. Norets, Andriy & Pelenis, Justinas, 2012. "Bayesian modeling of joint and conditional distributions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 168(2), pages 332-346.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Laura Liu, 2018. "Density Forecasts in Panel Data Models : A Semiparametric Bayesian Perspective," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-036, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Zhao, Yanyun, 2015. "Bayesian Linear Regression with Conditional Heteroskedasticity," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws1504, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    3. Federico Bassetti & Roberto Casarin & Marco Del Negro, 2022. "A Bayesian Approach to Inference on Probabilistic Surveys," Staff Reports 1025, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. Hien Duy Nguyen & TrungTin Nguyen & Faicel Chamroukhi & Geoffrey John McLachlan, 2021. "Approximations of conditional probability density functions in Lebesgue spaces via mixture of experts models," Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-15, December.
    5. Norets, Andriy, 2015. "Bayesian regression with nonparametric heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(2), pages 409-419.
    6. Abhra Sarkar & Bani K. Mallick & Raymond J. Carroll, 2014. "Bayesian semiparametric regression in the presence of conditionally heteroscedastic measurement and regression errors," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 70(4), pages 823-834, December.
    7. Laura Liu, 2017. "Density Forecasts in Panel Models: A semiparametric Bayesian Perspective," PIER Working Paper Archive 17-006, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 28 Apr 2017.
    8. repec:cte:whrepe:ws1504 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Mukhoti, Sujay & Guhathakurta, Kousik, 2015. "Product market performance and capital structure: A Hierarchical Bayesian semi-parametric panel regression model," MPRA Paper 62517, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Lewis, Gabriel, 2022. "Heteroskedasticity and Clustered Covariances from a Bayesian Perspective," MPRA Paper 116662, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pelenis, Justinas, 2012. "Bayesian Semiparametric Regression," Economics Series 285, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    2. Norets, Andriy, 2015. "Bayesian regression with nonparametric heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(2), pages 409-419.
    3. Debdeep Pati & David Dunson, 2014. "Bayesian nonparametric regression with varying residual density," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 66(1), pages 1-31, February.
    4. Federico Bassetti & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2018. "Bayesian Nonparametric Calibration and Combination of Predictive Distributions," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 113(522), pages 675-685, April.
    5. Huang, Yifan & Meng, Shengwang, 2020. "A Bayesian nonparametric model and its application in insurance loss prediction," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 84-94.
    6. Pati, Debdeep & Dunson, David B. & Tokdar, Surya T., 2013. "Posterior consistency in conditional distribution estimation," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 456-472.
    7. Laura Liu, 2018. "Density Forecasts in Panel Data Models : A Semiparametric Bayesian Perspective," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-036, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Norets, Andriy & Pelenis, Justinas, 2012. "Bayesian modeling of joint and conditional distributions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 168(2), pages 332-346.
    9. Jensen, Mark J. & Maheu, John M., 2010. "Bayesian semiparametric stochastic volatility modeling," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(2), pages 306-316, August.
    10. Stefano Favaro & Antonio Lijoi & Igor Prünster, 2012. "On the stick–breaking representation of normalized inverse Gaussian priors," DEM Working Papers Series 008, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    11. Griffin, J.E. & Steel, M.F.J., 2011. "Stick-breaking autoregressive processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(2), pages 383-396, June.
    12. Barrientos, Andrés F. & Canale, Antonio, 2021. "A Bayesian goodness-of-fit test for regression," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    13. Ryo Kato & Takahiro Hoshino, 2018. "Semiparametric Bayes Instrumental Variable Estimation with Many Weak Instruments," Discussion Paper Series DP2018-14, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    14. Bassetti, Federico & Casarin, Roberto & Leisen, Fabrizio, 2014. "Beta-product dependent Pitman–Yor processes for Bayesian inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 180(1), pages 49-72.
    15. Jin, Xin & Maheu, John M., 2016. "Bayesian semiparametric modeling of realized covariance matrices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(1), pages 19-39.
    16. Andrés F. Barrientos & Alejandro Jara & Fernando A. Quintana, 2017. "Fully Nonparametric Regression for Bounded Data Using Dependent Bernstein Polynomials," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 112(518), pages 806-825, April.
    17. Miller, Jeffrey W., 2019. "An elementary derivation of the Chinese restaurant process from Sethuraman’s stick-breaking process," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 112-117.
    18. Ryo Kato & Takahiro Hoshino, 2020. "Semiparametric Bayesian multiple imputation for regression models with missing mixed continuous–discrete covariates," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 72(3), pages 803-825, June.
    19. Fuentes-García, Ruth & Mena, Ramsés H. & Walker, Stephen G., 2009. "A nonparametric dependent process for Bayesian regression," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(8), pages 1112-1119, April.
    20. Laura Liu, 2017. "Density Forecasts in Panel Models: A semiparametric Bayesian Perspective," PIER Working Paper Archive 17-006, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 28 Apr 2017.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian semi-parametrics; Bayesian conditional density estimation; Heteroscedastic linear regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:178:y:2014:i:p3:p:624-638. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.