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Combining probabilistic land-use change and tree population dynamics modelling to simulate responses in mountain forests

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  • Rickebusch, Sophie
  • Gellrich, Mario
  • Lischke, Heike
  • Guisan, Antoine
  • Zimmermann, Niklaus E.

Abstract

Altitudinal tree lines are mainly constrained by temperature, but can also be influenced by factors such as human activity, particularly in the European Alps, where centuries of agricultural use have affected the tree-line. Over the last decades this trend has been reversed due to changing agricultural practices and land-abandonment. We aimed to combine a statistical land-abandonment model with a forest dynamics model, to take into account the combined effects of climate and human land-use on the Alpine tree-line in Switzerland.

Suggested Citation

  • Rickebusch, Sophie & Gellrich, Mario & Lischke, Heike & Guisan, Antoine & Zimmermann, Niklaus E., 2007. "Combining probabilistic land-use change and tree population dynamics modelling to simulate responses in mountain forests," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 209(2), pages 157-168.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:209:y:2007:i:2:p:157-168
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.06.027
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nancy E. Bockstael, 1996. "Modeling Economics and Ecology: The Importance of a Spatial Perspective," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(5), pages 1168-1180.
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    1. Adam Pawlewicz & Katarzyna Pawlewicz, 2023. "The Risk of Agricultural Land Abandonment as a Socioeconomic Challenge for the Development of Agriculture in the European Union," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-24, February.
    2. Eda Ustaoglu & Brendan Williams, 2022. "Institutional Settings and Effects on Agricultural Land Conversion: A Global and Spatial Analysis of European Regions," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-35, December.
    3. Zavalloni, Matteo & D’Alberto, Riccardo & Raggi, Meri & Viaggi, Davide, 2021. "Farmland abandonment, public goods and the CAP in a marginal area of Italy," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    4. Sardaro, Ruggiero & La Sala, Piermichele & De Pascale, Gianluigi & Faccilongo, Nicola, 2021. "The conservation of cultural heritage in rural areas: Stakeholder preferences regarding historical rural buildings in Apulia, southern Italy," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    5. Julia Stauder & Harald Meimberg & Monika Kriechbaum, 2023. "An Exploration of Drivers for Abandonment or Continuation of Summer Pasture Grazing in South Tyrol, Italy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-17, April.

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