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Terror attacks and election outcomes in Europe, 1970–2017

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  • Rees, Daniel I.
  • Smith, Brock

Abstract

With only a few exceptions, previous studies on terror attacks and election outcomes have focused on a particular country or attack, limiting their generalizability. We use data on 393 legislative elections held in 39 European countries during the period 1970–2017 to estimate the effects of terror attacks on election outcomes. Terror attacks occurring shortly before an election are associated with an increase in an index of nationalist vote share.

Suggested Citation

  • Rees, Daniel I. & Smith, Brock, 2022. "Terror attacks and election outcomes in Europe, 1970–2017," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:219:y:2022:i:c:s0165176522002774
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2022.110770
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Berrebi, Claude & Klor, Esteban F., 2008. "Are Voters Sensitive to Terrorism? Direct Evidence from the Israeli Electorate," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 102(3), pages 279-301, August.
    2. José G. Montalvo, 2011. "Voting after the Bombings: A Natural Experiment on the Effect of Terrorist Attacks on Democratic Elections," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(4), pages 1146-1154, November.
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    4. Kenneth R. Ahern, 2018. "The Importance of Psychology in Economic Activity: Evidence from Terrorist Attacks," NBER Working Papers 24331, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Gassebner, Martin & Jong-A-Pin, Richard & Mierau, Jochen O., 2008. "Terrorism and electoral accountability: One strike, you're out!," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 126-129, July.
    6. Peri, Giovanni & Rees, Daniel I. & Smith, Brock, 2023. "Terrorism and political attitudes: Evidence from European social surveys," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    7. Baccini, Leonardo & Brodeur, Abel & Nossek, Sean & Shor, Eran, 2021. "Terrorism and Voting Behavior: Evidence from the United States," GLO Discussion Paper Series 755, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    8. Getmansky, Anna & Zeitzoff, Thomas, 2014. "Terrorism and Voting: The Effect of Rocket Threat on Voting in Israeli Elections," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 108(3), pages 588-604, August.
    9. Benny Geys & Øystein Hernæs, 2021. "Party leaders and voter responses to political terrorism," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 187(3), pages 481-499, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Terrorism; Elections; Nationalism; Terror attack;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions

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